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So my thoughts are….
I think the villain rarely checks a strong hand on the river. I think they fear us checking behind so will lead out with value hands such as a King, a straight, or the rivered flush. I also think we have a very strong nut advantage here. Our range should be made up of a lot of kings, a lot of flush draws, and even a lot of our bluffs got some marginal value on the river. The majority of our bluffs in this spot being combos of QJ/JT/QT/etc. So even though we have nut advantage, we also just have the straight up range advantage.
I also think we have absolutely no showdown value. Meaning, I don’t think there is a single hand that our opponent can have in this spot that is worse than ours. Almost all of their OOP floats have gotten some sort of value on the river here, except for maybe a hand like A5dd. And even with that, we are chopping.
It’s not the best bluffing hand in terms of blockers. It’d be great to have the A of spades, or another spade blocker like J of spade, or T of spades. Atleast we don’t block any backdoor diamond draws.
And then, I think our opponent folds a lot of their range here. With the river check, there’s a lot hands that have marginal showdown in their range. It’s always hard to pin an opponent down to an exact hand. But I’d be surprised if they didn’t have a 9 in this spot. When I ran the ranges, I expected there to be almost 80% of their hands would have a pair of 9’s or worse. 20% of the time it was a hand like a suited Q, or Q9. I think they might get sticky with a Q, but almost for sure would fold a 9 if I jam on the river.
As played, I jammed for 17 BBs when I was checked to, and got a quick fold.
