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I don’t remember what I folded here. I’ve recently been more aware of adjusting my BB calling range based on position of the raiser, raise size, and heads-up vs multi-way. I’ve heard multiple professional coaches (Brokos and Affleck) say that the benefit of better pot odds doesn’t always outweigh the penalty of facing more opponents. I fold many unconnected offsuit hands.
On the turn you are faced with calling 1750 with the pot already 3984. A break even call requires 31% equity. If you are behind and have a straight flush draw (Ac3c) then you have ~25% equity. So you don’t have direct odds.
So with your draws, I think it’s shove or fold. If a shove gives you >7% fold equity, then that’s a profitable option.
We need to mix in strong hands to give our opponent a dilemma when we shove. When you shove, UTG has to call 1816 to win a pot of 5734 (or 7550 after the call). Equity for a break even call is 24%. In other words, if UTG loses 76% of the time, it’s a break even call.
Assume your strong value hands win 100% of the time and your draws improve to win 25% of the time. Let X be the percentage of strong value hands you should be shoving: 76% = X + 25%(1-X) solving the equation, X = 68%
To make your opponent indifferent, your shoving range should be 68% value and 32% draws.
I think that you can have a calling range if you think that UTG is capable of check-raising with some bluffs. Basically if you have good bluff catchers and UTG has bluffs, you can use these to call. If UTG is never bluffing, then you don’t need a calling range. You may want to include some strong value hands in your calling range so that UTG can’t simply double barrel you off of your entire calling range.
