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This was a very well played hand by the so called “hero”. I think you are spot on when you say that your calling range is stronger than your shoving range. If you are willing to smooth call a check raise for 1.3x pot sized bet, most likely you don’t fear the club draw. A call here would scream “I have QQ or 44”, and the villain would most likely only continue to push the action if the river provided the nuts. You would almost never raise these hands because you would be hoping that UTG was holding two clubs and would catch his flush on the river, guaranteeing your double-up.
Because you elected to shove, rather than call, we can assume you have a very strong hand, and you think you are ahead at the moment, or at least drawing with significant equity. It would be interesting to know if you have any bluffs here, but I think very rarely….
But if you think you are ahead, what have you narrowed the villain’s range to with the action on the turn? I think the villain made a mistake by raising so large on the turn. Although it serves notice that he likely intends to get stacks in, I think this bet weakens his range by removing QQ and 44- these hands will normally want the flush draws to tag along for a more reasonable callable-sized bet. Because he was UTG and raised pre-flop, this removes any 2 that isn’t suited with an A. Because A2c is not possible with the 2c on the board, and because there are only 2 combos of suited A2 remaining, it is unlikely that villain is holding one.
You haven’t said what your hand was, but I thought it was somewhat likely that you were holding the Ac. Because the villain seems to have unintentionally eliminated a full house from his range, and if you held the nut flush blocker, the only hands you really have to fear a call from are AA, KK, AQ. If you don’t hold the Ac….. the Kc, Qc, Jc or Tc in your hand would also significantly block the villain’s pre-flop raising range which would include the Ac.
From the villain’s point of view, the only hands you should be making this shove with are very strong hands (not full house). To shove over the top of an oversized turn check-raise, you are likely to have A2, AA, KK, or AQc, all of which have him beat.
Well played, Jim! I am rooting for the villain in the next showdown!
