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Awesome Post 5by5
It’s painful to fold TT in this spot but I think it’s the logical thing to do.
The big stack bully likely has a super wide range when he opens. When he puts you all-in, this range is much smaller than before. I would expect a competent big stack to avoid a silly risk like getting it in against the medium stack after they have shown strength. If I were the big stack with a weakish hand like 87ss, this is a “pick another spot” moment when I see 8.5 bb raise. This means, the villain likely has something worth seeing all 5 community cards. To me, the best hands to do this are broadway hands and pocket pairs. You beat some of that range but it doesn’t look optimal. Although this isn’t exact, I think it’s a logical starting point.
Possible 4-betting range:
Over-pair — (AA – JJ)
Under-pair — (99 – 22)
Two-overs — (AK, AQ, AJ, KQ, KJ, QJ)
Overall
— this range has 24 + 48 + 96 = 168 combos
— you’re 20% to win against 24 combos of over-pairs (AA – JJ).
— you’re 80% to win against 48 combos of under-pairs (99 – 22).
— you’re 50% to win against 96 combos of two overs (AK, AQ, AJ, KQ, KJ, QJ).
You’re beating about 63 of the 168 combos.
You win 37.5% of the time against this 4-bet range.
