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  • binkley

    Member
    August 17, 2020 at 6:19 pm

    All great comments so far. Based on the pay jump worth 10 buyins, I agree that it’s an ICM fold.

    Even though you know that the Villain is likely just leveraging the ICM pressure, your options are limited. Fold here and play very tight until the short stack either busts or doubles.

    I thought it’d be interesting to explore circumstances where we could argue for a call. Suppose villain would 3bet smaller (say to 20bbs) with the strongest pairs (TT+). But they jam with all suited broadways, suited aces, pairs 99 thru 55, and ATo+ and KQo.

    Facing this range, TT has 65% equity, which is a profitable call.

    Of course, we can’t know with certainty that villain has this exact 4bet shoving range.