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Some good comments here. I’ll trust Steve’s math, and it just points out how bad of a spot it is for us and gives us a very awkward decision. To avoid this, we need to play much more passive than we normally would, and just call preflop. We don’t want to give our opponent an opportunity to put out tournament life on the line so we need to play small ball.
And the line, “go to 8.5x to try and get the BB heads up” is totally backwards. First, we haven’t seen a decision from the BB yet, and not even one that would lead us to believe he wants to play for all his chips at this point. Second, we incentive him to fold here. His big win in this spot is not a double, but instead you (or your opponent) busting before he does. You 3 betting gives him reason to watch the rest of the hand play out without him.
