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This is all really great stuff, thanks for the input. I wish I could upload a video of the decision in real time (I did record it), but unfortunately video is not an option for the forum.
I agonized and used a bunch of my time bank for this decision. In the end, I made the call. I wasn’t making the ICM calculations real-time, but I knew that it was likely +EV to fold. Because I had been watching this player’s aggressive actions and wide range, I came to the conclusion that it was a close enough spot to grit my teeth and call. As I mentioned, I believed I was probably ahead at the time, but not by much. If only I could win this flip, I would have a much better chance heads-up to seal the Bink…. I had a nice 2nd place finish the day before in a bigger tournament, and although the money was great, I really wanted to sit atop one of these huge field tourneys. This most likely had something to do with the “call” decision as well.
As it turns out, he held 55 and my TT held. Big stack guy went on to lose the rest of his chips to the former short stack (ICM suicide), and after a nice heads up battle, the Hero takes it down.
This is a great discussion, and even better experience, because I hope to have the same type of decision for real “life changing money” in a big tourney sometime down the line. Thanks again for all of the great analysis!
