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@ARW , I think you mixed up something with how you laid this out. If all your range estimates are correct, you have the “win 37.5% of the time” wrong. I’m not sure how you got to the 63/168 combos either.
We are slightly better than 50% vs the two overs (really close to 55%), but lets call it 50% for the sake of easy math, so we break even 96 times, 48 times we win at a 80% rate, and 24 times we win at a 20% clip. That math works out to be an equity of 54.3%. If we up the vs two overs to 55%, then we have 57.1% equity.
