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hard to imagine V having AA (because of preflop and flop action) and hard to imagine them having a K (because of post-flop action). This feels like a Jack or nothing. They should never be raising river for value with anything other than AA, a K or a J imo and i have ruled out the AA and any Kings, so I think the only value bet here is a Jack. They should not be raising any other pairs or any flushes, so it’s the one Jack or it’s bluffs (even if they have a K that’s a chop). But what bluffs do they have? You bet pot on turn and river, they have to think you have a K or a J; do they really think they have any fold equity? With only one out you lose to, it almost feels like a mandatory call.
So that’s how I answer the hand.. but generally, I have seem myself evolve in this way when it comes to situations like this (and I would love feedback).
1) I used to rarely bet for value with hands that were marginal (although your hand is above marginal); I was always afraid of the check-raise and i like the idea of under-representing my hand. But I felt I was missing value too often….
2) So I started value betting more and getting a fair amount of value in spots, but then finding more awkward spots when I got raised holding a marginal hand. And i have found that whenever I called in those spots, they almost always had it; so I think my value betting was actually a negative EV play….
3) So now, if I have a marginal hand and I really decide that I can be for value, and then i get raised, I try to exploit my opponents by over-folding as I think generally they are not raising/bluffing enough in those spots. By not paying off those raises over my value bets, I believe I have once again made value betting profitable.
Good stuff @yamel
