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Example 1
We are middle stages of a tournament. In this hand, we expect our opponent to open a range of 13 * 6 = 78 combos of pocket pairs (AA – 22) and 20 * 16 = 320 combos of any broadway (AK – JT). This range represents 78 + 320 = 398 of the 1326 starting hand combos or an opening range of about 30%.
50/100 – 10 handed
(pot = 50 + 100 + 10 ante = 250)
We have 2800 chips and our opponent has us covered. Pre-flop, our opponent opens to 300 on the button and we defend in the big blind. The pot size is 750. On the flop of ________, our opponent c-bets 375 or 50% of the pot.
Stack Size = 2500
Pot Size = 750
Bet Size = 375
= (2500 + 750) / (2500 – 375) = 3250 / 2125 = 1.53 to 1
If the opponent folds, you earn 750 + 375 = 1125 chips without showing your hand.
If the opponent calls, the opponent needs to win ~39% of the time to break-even.
If the flop is 432 rainbow, our opponent should have an over-pair or a set (78 / 398 ~ 20%) of the time and two overs (320 / 398 ~ 80%) of the time.
Let’s say that you have 98 suited and this was not your flop!!! But maybe it’s a spot to re-raise all-in and hope for a fold. The opponent is expected to call with any over-pair or any set and fold all the broadway over-cards that also missed the flop. They call 20% and fold 80% of their c-betting range.
Should you re-raise?
