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Is this a spot to re-raise?
On 432 rainbow, you have 98 suited.
— if called by AK-JT, you lose about 75% —— lets say they always fold to a raise
— if called by AA-TT, you lose about 95% —— let’s say they always call to a raise
— if called by set, you lose 100% —— let’s say they always call
Overall, you’re called 20% of the time with about 5% hand equity or your getting a fold 80% of the time with some just-in-case equity of 25%.
FOLD EV
= (% fold)(amount win)
= (80%)(750 + 375)
= (80%)(1125)
= 900
CALL EV
= (% call)[(%win)(amount win) – (% lose)(amount lose)]
= (20%)[(5%)(2500+2500+750) – (95%)(2500)]
= (20%)[(5%)(5750) – (95%)(2500)]
= (20%)[(287.5 – 2499.05)]
= (20%)(2211.55)
= -442.31
TOTAL EV = Fold EV + Call EV
= (900) – (442.31) = 457.69
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If you add some additional calling hands like an extra 10% of hands, then you should recalculate your EV.
FOLD EV
= (% fold)(amount win)
= (70%)(750 + 375)
= (70%)(1125)
= 787.5
CALL EV
= (% call)[(%win)(amount win) – (% lose)(amount lose)]
= (30%)[(5%)(5750) + (25%)(5750) – (95%)(2500) – (75%)(2500)]
= (30%)[287.5 + 1437.5 – 2375 – 1875]
= (30%)(1725 – 4250)
= (30%)(-2525)
= -757.5
TOTAL EV = Fold EV + Call EV
= (787.5) – (757.5) = 30
