-
I agree with everyone’s take on this flop. Smaller is better. We’re trying to fold out equity, but never a better hand. We can accomplish that with the smaller sizing.
On this turn as SB, after the BB calls our flop bet, I much prefer a check. We can have the intention to check raise bluff or see it check through. Either approach is more likely to benefit us. A check through to a river with our marginal value is great. There are lots of rivers that are going to get dirty for a BB opponent with a J or K, but it isn’t quite dirty enough to scare them off with a pot size bet on this turn.
We’re very likely behind our opponent except for BB diamonds, some AdX-floats. That said, even though we may be behind, it is also decently hard for our BB opponent to bet this turn with weaker portion of their range. They are incentivized to check back most of their one pair hands that will also likely call our turn bet.
This means we can get to rivers cheaply—ahead of the draws and able to lead out for value and bluffs on a number of beneficial rivers. It also means a large turn lead doesn’t accomplish all that much except charging some diamond draws but mostly making us put chips in behind. With our hand exactly, I’d be leading on rivers with any non-diamond Q, 10, 9, 8, 7. And I’d even be check calling some more polarized diamond rivers. If we check and have to fold on bad river runouts, we’ve lost a very small amount compared to the 1/2 pot, pot, and 1/2 pot line.
