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Preflop: Effective stack is HJ with ~6k (20bbs). Hero AsKd raises to 750 (2.5bbs).
This a good raise size.
Flop: [Pot 2750] 10d 3d 2d
BB leads 600 (~22% pot), Hero raises to 1800, HJ all-in for 6K. BB fold
Hero has reads on BB but not HJ. BB is known to lead often and chase draws. Holding two overs and a big diamond, I prefer a call. If BB has a made hand, we are getting the correct odds to improve to a better hand. We also keep BB in with all his bluffs. Additionally an unknown opponent is yet to act.
HJ jam makes the pot 11,150. It’s 4200 to Hero for a call. Equity needed for a break-even call is 4200/(4200+11150) = 27.4%
Against exactly a set (TT, 33, 22 [9 combos]), equity is 29%.
Against a made non-nut flush (Qd9d, 8d7d [say 17 combos]), equity is 29%
Against a made nut flush (Ad8d [7 combos]), equity is 0%
Against a nut flush draw and wheel draw (Ad5c [8 combos]), equity is 48%.
Against a pair and a nut flush draw (AdTc [9 combos]), equity is 11%.
Assume that HJ will jam with all of the above hands.
Total combos = 9+17+7+8+9 = 50
Equity = 9/50*29+17/50*29+8/50*48+11/50*11 = 26%
This looks to be a slightly losing call. One important factor is that we are not drawing to the nuts. Holding the Ad would make this a profitable.
