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  • binkley

    Member
    November 6, 2020 at 10:58 am

    Preflop:

    Facing an UTG raise, holding QdJc in LJ this deep (>50bbs eff) my default is to fold. Read is that UTG is a solid player so opening range should be tight. From the LJ, with 5 players left to act, I don’t continue with many offsuit hands. I prefer a 3bet over a call. The call invites in other players (especially button and the blinds). QJo doesn’t play well multi-way.

    Flop:

    After BB leads small, UTG raises. The bet of 1bbs into a pot of 8.8bbs is small and I would treat it like a check. I think that UTG is looking at it the same way. So UTG raise is basically like a standard cbet.

    Hero with top pair/good kicker with a open-ended straight draw has an easy call. UTG could be ahead with overpairs (AA, KK, QQ) or top pair with better kicker (AJ, KJ). But even against these hands, Hero has plenty of equity.

    Turn:

    With the 2c on the turn, the flush draw just came in. UTG bet is polarizing. UTG is betting into 2 players that could have been on a FD as played.

    In position, with a top pair and draws, I like a call from Hero. Holding Jc, Hero does block alot of made flushes (AcJc, KcJc, QcJc). UTG may continue betting holding just a single high card club. (AcAx, KcKx, AcKx, AxKc). Having the Q blocker, also blocks the straight (KQ).

    River:

    Qs is a very interesting card. Hero now has two pair. But any Kx or 8x has a straight. Value hands that Hero loses to: KK, QQ, JJ, TT, 99, 88, Kx (includes AK, KQ, KJ, KT), AcXc (includes Ac5c)

    Hands that Hero beats. AcQx (which Hero blocks), AcAx, AcJx, AcTx

    I haven’t done the math. But this looks like a fold given the number of nutted hands that UTG has in their range. If we think UTG is capable of bluffing with all combinations of AcX and turning weaker two pairs into bluffs, then this may be a close call.