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Flop:[Jd 3c Td]
Pot is 956. BB leads for 210 (22% pot). UTG raises 679 to 889 (50% pot raise).
Hero to call 889 into a pot of 2055. Equity required for break even call is 889/(889+[956+210+889]) = 30% if no more money goes into the pot.
Risk is that BB 3bets. But if BB calls then equity required is 25%.
What value hands does UTG have? Possible hands that would limp call are: JT and 33. Discount JJ and TT as they would likely open raise.
Against exactly JT and 33, KK has 28% equity. So if UTG is only raising with a value hands then it’s a slightly losing call.
What possible bluffs does UTG have? Strongest draws are Ad3d (pair & nut FD), AdXd (nut FD), KdQd, Qd9d,9d8d.
If we include just Ad3d into UTG range, then equity goes to 30%.
Are there hands that UTG might over-value? AJ, KJ, QJ are possible over-valued hands.
If we include QJ, then equity goes to 38%.
So if we think UTG is bluffing at some frequency or overvaluing top pair, then we should continue. If our read of the opponent makes us pretty certain that UTG range is 100% value, then a fold is reasonable.
