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  • eanderson85

    November 25, 2020 at 1:49 am

    If he has a flush already, you have 7 outs which wins 27.8% of the time.
    You have to call 1689 to win (1689×2)+800= 1689/4178= 40% pot odds. So we don’t have direct odds to draw the nuts.
    But what if he didn’t flop a flush, which happens only once every 119 times you have suited cards? Do we win 13% of the time without the nuts?
    What beats us?
    No three bet stat, so we’ll assume no limp/3bet range, although with a 4% RFI there could be one.
    Flopped flush. 36 combos?
    Well, sets all beat us. 3 combos of each. With 50/4 stats he could have all 9.
    Two pairs? I doubt Q5 and Q3, Maybe 53s. 3 combos, maybe. 21 combos tops.
    What do we beat?
    Over pairs? Even the most passive open Aces and Kings. 0.
    Top pair? 50/4 might limp AQ. Do they shove the flop? If they are sick of you they might. There are 114 combos of top pair in the GTO calling range. This is ignition, so they probably aren’t calling wide enough.
    So far, we lose to 66 combos and beat over 100. Will he shove a draw? Ace 2? Ace 4? King, Jack, or Ten of spades? Every one helps us.
    We win over 40% of the time easy.