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  • tvstensby

    December 6, 2020 at 3:53 pm

    I would fold JJ here, unless I know that all three opponents are calling with inferior ranges. Even though the pot odds seems good the actual EV will be controlled by your tightest opponent.

    I did a short experiment in an equity calculator to demonstrate this. Let the first opponent have a 100% range, the second a 20% range (all pairs, broadways, and suited aces). I then calculated the EV for JJ assuming various tight ranges for the third opponent.

    Main pot (four ways): 5868
    Side pot (three ways): 4872

    Each row below list equity in main and side points and then calculate total EV:

    A) thightest range AA-QQ, AKs, eq 19.5% and 21.5%, ev 1144 + 1047 = 2191
    B) thightest range AA-JJ, AKs, eq 19.5% and 21.8%, ev 1144 + 1062 = 2206
    C) thightest range AA-TT, AKs, eq 24.5% and 28.5%, ev 1437 + 1388 = 2825

    None of the cases above are profitable. We need the tightest range to include 99 or AKo in order to have a profitable call.

    However, since we are facing an all-in, followed by an isolation jam and then a call it is likely that at least one of your opponents is using a tight range.