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So the 10 is also a little dicey. We’re now losing to 99, 1010, and a few diamond combos with the 9d (8d9d, 9d10d, Qd9d, Kd9d, Ad9d). But if UTG has those hands, they have a lot of missed draws in this spot too. I do not fear JJ or 88 the way this hand played out. In a vacuum without ICM, I’m calling this. There are just too many bluffs and we’re getting the right price.
That said, with ICM in play, this is a much trickier spot. We can fold and still be 3rd in chips at this final table. This is why I like the small 3bet pre. It seems like ICM encourages you to flat more in this kind of spot, but I’d argue that you lose less and win more often by putting your opponents to tough decisions. I also like making our turn bet larger, which would have helped eliminate some of the marginal holdings we’re now scared of.
I’d be curious what others think, but I think in game I find an ICM fold.
