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So @Jim and @PokerGeekMN and I recorded a forums episode about this spot last night. We came up with a lot of questions, but few answers. So I’ve dug a little deeper into GTO+ for some solver help in this spot. I put some fairly reasonable HJ open and BB defend ranges in at 50bb effective.
Turn Leads
The solver has very few turn leads in this spot. I was surprised how few. The solver checks 91% of range on the turn. I’ve marked the most common lead spots in red circles. We don’t always have either of these hands in the BB spot, but when we do, our best top pair (AQ) and our worst bottom pair (63s) become almost 100% leads (regardless if we hold a heart). 98 (suited or unsuited, without a heart) is the other very common leading spot. Either 9h8h or 98 with a heart are still part of our checking range. We are checking a ton of flushes on this turn. The most common flush lead is a K high flush (KQ, KJ, K10, K9). In essence, we should probably be leading our best and worst pair combos here and a few K high flushes, then checking most everything else.
Turn Check Raises
When V decides to make a bet into this board, our check raises vs calls are interesting. We’re still calling a lot with 57.5% of hands (any Q, 7, or 6). Folding any garbage without a heart (around 33%). And we’re only check raising 9.1% of remaining hands. We are check raising 100% of the time with a few hands: Sets of 3s with the heart (we call without the heart), low flushes (4h3h, 5h3h, 5h4h, 8h5h), and most of our nut flushes. The AhX is a very low frequency check raise here and most often a call (this surprises me a lot!). The only AhX hands the solver likes to raise is Ah5x, Ah4x, perhaps because it blocks a lot of straights. Instead of the AhX hands, the solver seems to prefer hands like JhTx as its heart bluffs.
Specific Hands in Question
So to go back to the hands in question and if we follow the solver at GTO (something we don’t always do).
Qs10d would be a check call on this turn.
Kh2h would be a high frequency check raise, which the solver prefers over KJ-K8 flushes, which I think is because it helps unblock some of V’s potential lower flushes?
8h5h would a mixed strategy, but also a higher frequency check raise.
Ah8s would almost exclusively be a check call.
And 33 would be a check raise if we held the 3h, it would be a check call if we didn’t.
