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Still trying to get this posted. If it duplicates that is why…
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We just recorded a Forums podcast episode about this scenario. I think it raised a ton of questions and good discussion, but not a lot of answers, so I thought I’d go into the solver to see what other things we might find about this situation. As a reminder, solvers aren’t answers, they’re how a hand would be played in equilibrium. So they give us a sense of the optimal way to play a hand versus a perfect opponent, not necessarily against the field. With that said, a few of the parameters I used: I gave a fairly reasonable HJ open and BB defend range. I did not allow the OOP player to donk on the flop and had the IP player check. On the turn, OOP could lead for 33% pot. When checked to IP could bet small (35%), big (80%), or check back. When led into, IP could call or raise 3x the bet. With all that said, here’s where we landed.
TURN LEADS
The solver does not lead very often on this turn, checking 91% of hands. Although it sometimes doesn’t have these hands, when it does, it leads 100% of the time with its best and worst pair (AQ and 63s). It does not seem to care whether it has the Ah with AQ. The other high frequency leads are 98 without hearts and Q7 (top 2). It also sometimes leads a few K high flushes (KQ, KJ, K10, K9), but otherwise most made flushes are not leads.TURN CHECK THEN LED INTO
When we check with most of our range, the check raises on this board are really interesting. So first, we’re folding 33% of our hands in this spot. All of our non-heart garbage basically. Our check raises (9.1%) are some nut flushes (eg Ah4h, some weak flushes (eg 5h4h), sets of 33 with the heart, and a few AhX (A5 & A4 mostly since it helps block the straight). Again, though, we’re calling a lot in this spot. More than I would expect. We’re calling with every Q, 7, 6. We’re calling with a lot of AhX.SPECIFIC HANDS
Again, we don’t necessarily play exactly like the solver, but this with the hands in question, here is how GTO+ would play them:1. Qs10d
This hand is almost exclusively a check call on this turn.2. Kh2h
This hand is a frequent check raise (93% of the time).3. 8h5h
This hand is more of a mix. 65% of the time it is a check raise, 35% of the time it is a call. I don’t for the life of me know how you’d decide this in real time.4. Ah8s
This one really surprised me. It is 100% a check. No mixed strategy at all. I would be very tempted to lead or check raise with this hand. But the solver likes a much more passive line with it.5. 3d3s
This hand is also a check call. If we had 3d3h, it is a high frequency check raise. Just being able to block that one flush card is a big enough value to turn it from almost always a call to almost always a raise.
