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  • arw

    January 9, 2021 at 11:02 pm

    To me, I think it’s definitely possible for you to fold AK in some spots but maybe not that spot. It depends on your assumptions about my range and your equity against that range. If you think my range very tight (AK and any pair), you are at best flipping for your tournament life. As seen on TV, some pros like Humberto Brenes will even fold JJ in a similar spot when pressure is applied.

    I built some simple ranges below:

    169 starting hands

    13 are pocket pairs (AA – 22) ~ 7.7% of total —- 6 combos each


    78 are suited hands (AKs – 32s) ~ 46.2% of total —- 4 combos each

    78 are unsuited hands (AKo – 32o) ~ 46.2% of total —- 12 combos each


    Let’s say Steve is opening X% of hands…

    10% — (22+, AKs – ATs)

    20% — (22+, AKs – A2s, AKo – A7o)

    30% — (22+, AKs – A2s, AKo – A2o, KQs – K9s, KQo – K9o)

    40% — (22+, AKs – A2s, AKo – A2o, KQ – K2s, KQo – K2o)

    50% — (22+, AKs – A2s, AKo – A2o, KQ – K2s, KQo – K2o, QJs – Q8s, QJo – Q8o)

    These ranges are only guesses. To build them, I was just choosing an additional ~16.9 hands to add to the range for each extra 10%. Obv, it makes more sense for a player like Steve to be selective PF, thus you can replace weaker holdings like A7o with something like QJs if you wish.

    In my example, when Steve opens 40% and then only calls a raise 15% of the time. I estimate that Steve might be only calling my raise with (22+, AKs-A7s, KQs-JTs). However, this calling range might shrink in a tough spot from some well-placed leverage. As Steve’s opponent, the idea is that you are trying to pull a quick one with the weak end of your range. To pull it off, make sure that:

    • Steve is likely opening wide
    • Steve is likely calling thin
    • Your table image is assumed to be tight, well-respected, and never out-of-line.