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Here are my thoughts after looking at some of the solver stats on this. I do like the 3bet here preflop, but I might make my sizing a larger (more like 3x).
It’s really hard to speculate around accurate ranges heads up, but with the assumptions I made, the solver says that 5d6d is a high frequency check on this flop (almost 97%). When we check this flop, we have a lot more options on this and future
streets even with this draw, and I think that’s why the solver strongly
prefers that flop check.In the few instances when we do lead with it on the flop, then we’re definitely continuing on this turn, but into this ~22bb pot, we prefer a 9-10bb lead vs. a shove. Once we’re called on the flop, it skews V toward an Ax range and we may not be able to get them to fold. And when we’re shoved on in this spot after leading this turn, we need to fold and that smaller bet gives us the opportunity to get away from it.
