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Theory question: 10d8h5c board
I’m starting to play with subsets in the solver, which basically allows you to run spots across various representational flop types. Here are the basics of the scenario. I’ve been running a fairly standard MP open (2.25bb) and big blind defend spot. We go to a flop with 6bb pot (includes bb ante). I can share ranges if curious, but they’re fairly standard. I’ve then given the big blind the option of donk leading or checking and then given the MP player three options for betting when checked to (I did so because I was curious about overbets on flops): 1.8bb (30%), 4.8bb (80%), 7.5bb (125%). I then ran the simulation at 20bb, 40bb, and 100bb effective.
To my surprise, the deeper we got, the more the solver leaned toward that flop overbet sizing. This is not some trivial, never-really-usable finding. When we’re deep the solver likes this overbet flop cbet about 25% of the time. In particular, it liked using it on the 10d8h5c board. On this board when 40bb effective, it still chose this sizing, but only 18% of the time. On this board at 100bb effective, it chose this sizing nearly 76% across our entire range. Just by adding a flush draw (10d8h5d), this plummets to 51% of our range, but it still one of the top flops we elect to go with this overbet.
Some of the other findings make a ton of sense to me. Our most common small cbet is on paired boards with a broadway card (JdJh6d or QsQc10c); our most common check backs are on boards that give the big blind lots of possible advantages (As3c3h, 7d6d5h) or boards that we absolutely dominate (AsAcKh).
But I’m struggling to think about this board and others like it where the solver leans toward an overbet cbet. Other boards where the solver really liked this sizing across range include:
Td8h5c; Td8h5d; 9c7h4d; 9c6s2s; 8d4d2h
Since these are mostly disadvantage boards, I currently play a lot of boards like these as a large range check back against competent opponents. What are your thoughts about this spot as the MP player? Do you ever employ overbet cbets when deep? Why do you think the solver prefers boards like these to employ them?
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