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To Fold, or Not To Fold, JJ?
So this one comes out of tonight’s home game, I honestly in the moment felt like I played it wrong but let’s see what others think.
(Typing this out based on a screen recording, so sorry if formatting is strange)
Blinds: 35/70
Hero Info: Cutoff Position, 3480 chips, Dealt JcJd
Wolfman109: Posts small blind
KiToMan335: Posts big blind
Ivor_Bigone1: Raises to 210
dan331480: Folds
JonLutsey: Folds
lespaul99: Calls
FiveByFive555: Calls
mbabker (Hero): Calls
Shoresy00: Raises to 1367 (all-in)
Wolfman109: Folds
KiToMan335: Folds
Ivor_Bigone1: Raises to 3121 (all-in)
lespaul99: Folds
FiveByFive555: Calls for 2991 (all-in)
So, by the time it gets back around to me, I’m now last to act with 210 already committed into a 8085 chip pot and needing to commit 2911 of my remaining 3270 chips to call what would be a 4-way all-in.
I’ll leave the result out for now, it’s irrelevant to the decision at hand (I can add it later for those who weren’t on the table).
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7 Replies
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I would fold JJ here, unless I know that all three opponents are calling with inferior ranges. Even though the pot odds seems good the actual EV will be controlled by your tightest opponent.
I did a short experiment in an equity calculator to demonstrate this. Let the first opponent have a 100% range, the second a 20% range (all pairs, broadways, and suited aces). I then calculated the EV for JJ assuming various tight ranges for the third opponent.
Main pot (four ways): 5868
Side pot (three ways): 4872Each row below list equity in main and side points and then calculate total EV:
A) thightest range AA-QQ, AKs, eq 19.5% and 21.5%, ev 1144 + 1047 = 2191
B) thightest range AA-JJ, AKs, eq 19.5% and 21.8%, ev 1144 + 1062 = 2206
C) thightest range AA-TT, AKs, eq 24.5% and 28.5%, ev 1437 + 1388 = 2825None of the cases above are profitable. We need the tightest range to include 99 or AKo in order to have a profitable call.
However, since we are facing an all-in, followed by an isolation jam and then a call it is likely that at least one of your opponents is using a tight range.
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We need the tightest range to include 99 or AKo in order to have a profitable call.
I’ll come back tomorrow with the full result, but 99 was one of the hands out there. So, there was a range that was just on the border of profitable here.
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I was watching and agreed with your fold. Curious if you would have called if FiveByFive would have folded ahead of you?
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If it were a 3-way pot, I think I’d have called more times than not there.
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On another note I would have 3 bet. Perhaps to ~750 so an all in by the button would re-open the action.
Originally I was going to 3-bet a lot of opens given my position. But, after seeing UTG open to 3BB then having 2 callers behind, something inside me was raising a red flag and it talked me out of the 3-bet there.
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This was a really interesting spot. Here was my read on the situation. Shoresy00 was in an ideal squeeze spot, so I’m thinking that range is wide. I think it contains a lot of Ax holdings. I also did not put you on as strong a hand as JJ given your flat behind. Ivor can obviously have the goods here, but there was something about the way he hesitated that made me think that I’m up against two unmade hands. It was loose and in a vacuum, I’m generally folding this spot, but I made the call here based on that read and my perception that you were weaker.
In your exact spot, ugh. With three all-ins in front of you, your JJ are likely behind or are going to need to dodge rain drops. Still, you’re getting an amazing price to potentially dodge those.
In the end, I think this was a good disciplined fold.
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