[fivebyfive]

Rough, but this is the right play for sure. This is a fist pump jam for me here with 12bb (I’m never flatting at this stack depth from the SB, maybe from the BTN where we have position, but not in this spot).

We’re not really in ICM jail yet (too far from the bubble) and this is a premium hand. Even if I’m starting to tighten my range here, it would never touch TT. Chip EV GTO would be something like A2s+, KTs+, QJs, KQo, A9o+, 44+. So if I’m wanting to tighten some because I think V is really tight, maybe I move to AJo+, KJs+, 77+/66+, but we just have to go with TT here. Sometimes we run into it and go home. But more often, we either just take it down or get called and we’re either ahead, win a race, or suck out and more than double up. I’d only ever consider folding this in an extreme ICM spot with 12bb.

[taylormaas]

Yup — classic thing for people is to overthink where they bust. But this is a clear spot to go all-in. If it helps, do the math and give them a proper opening range, and a range that would call you bet and your equity vs the range and figure out your EV — It will be a profitable play. Likewise, if you had KK here and lost to AA you may feel slightly better about your decision because you know for sure that math that we just did for TT is even more in your favor, however it still ends up with you busting.

Otherwise, if it helps. Go to your car, scream, and move on to the next tourney. Don’t worry, we all do it sometimes.

[imalouigi]

Good responses here from @FiveByFive & @TaylorMaas Slam dunk jam with 12 bbs and still 13 from the money.

I do think if we are 3 from the money at this stack depth, our decision is much more interesting. I think jam, call & even open fold are all on the table.

ICM is a lot more complicated than that the juxtaposition of “playing to win” vs. protecting our stack (i.e being “nitty”) to make the money. Keep in mind that a double on the bubble (assuming 3 from the money) still puts us at or below the average stack so how much EV do we really gain from winning 4.5 BB’s or even doubling? The flip side of that debate is that we don’t know how many opportunities we will have to pick up a premium hand in a turbo structure.

What would you guys do in this scenario?

[mikey_aces_0023]

Thanks for all your replies @fivebyfive , @TaylorMaas , and @ImaLouigi . Although it felt gross, I did feel I was making the correct, albeit uncomfortable decision – I appreciate your thoughts and feedback.

Had this decision come up 3 from the money, I think all other factors remaining the same I’d still opt to jam this, given its a $150 daily. If I bust (again!), so be it, not too worried about losing out in that spot, and would much rather take a calculated, and in **most** cases profitable risk. With where I’m at in my game, say it’s a different spot – such as a $1100+ buy-in, feeling like I’m much more content at this time to probably play it safe, fold, and now that we’re out of the SB guarantee cash ITM.

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Actually had a similar situation to this – and another difficult situation come up yesterday in a $300, two-day tourney:

– Situation #1: 72 ITM, 76 remain, blinds are 3k/6k with BB ante, my stack is 155k (tournament avg is 220ish) at this time, villain in MP raises to 18k (stack approx 200k), action folds to me in the BB, look down at AsKs. Decided to 3-bet to 55k, initial raiser tanks for a bit and shoves. IMO given the situation above, felt it was a snap call – could’ve folded and been ITM 100% given how close we were, but didn’t care if I busted and missed the min-cash if it meant I could potentially double up. Only hands not wanting to see there are obviously AA, KK, and helps to block both of them a bit – everything else we’re either flipping or dominating, so let’s go. Knew making the 3-bet, I’d call if he shove… ended up getting rewarded with a 5-high straight.

In hindsight, it worked out for me, but feel my sizing here (3.06x) is a tad too small, something closer to 65k (3.6x) to give him odds that polarizes his decision closer to folding or shoving – feel like only hands that call in that situation are JJ+, AK?

If he calls, life gets a bit more challenging on the flop: 234 (one spade), and feel my only play here is to jam (pot 119k, effective stack 94k) to fully realize my equity and feel he has to be put on a range of TT+, AK.

Anyone see/feel this could/should be played differently given the circumstances? From a mindset approach, cashing would be nice, but same mentality as the $150 daily – if I bust with AK suited 4 from the bubble, so be it… but in 10k WSOP Main Event… would be a lot harder decision…

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– Situation #2: ITM, 47 remaining, blinds now 5k/10k, Hero again finds himself in BB with a stack of 295k (before posting ante/BB), villain in MP, is a well-respected reg (Wazwaz) with a stack near 270k (tournament average: 310k) min raises to 20k, in BB we have 4h4d, we call.

Pot is now 55k, effective stack is 265k Flop: 4c7c8s. We drill a set, but on a wet board. Hero check, villain continues for 20k, hero check-raises to 65k, villain calls. Pot now 185k, effective stack is 200k, villain effective stack is 195k. Great board for my range, and sure enough I actually have a hand here.

Turn is 2c… now a full flush draw onboard and we’ve got a huge decision on our hands. Villain could certainly have us close to drawing dead in these instances with sets of 7s, 8s, or flush draws, flush draw + top pair, flush draw + gut shot.. straight flush draw… hate the turn.

At this point, I’m thinking of shoving for protection >> value. Feel I can’t check in this position, giving him a free card and anything less than a shove leaves me pot-committed for the river. From an image standpoint, villain has seen me make several strong/aggressive plays on day 1, commenting on one of them, so feel although I could have plenty of bluffs on a board like this he’d have to put me on a made straight, low-end flush, or set. Because I’m not a reg at the higher buy-in events, would have to think that by shoving he never thinks I’m bluffing here…

Anyways, we shove, he thinks for a bit, but calls fairly quickly and Tables AsAc – overpaid with nut-flush draw, we’ve got him covered by 27k… river is the ace from space, set over set… we’re down to fumes, cash out in 42nd place, and he goes on to take down the tourney for $33k… gross, but such is life.

Wish I would’ve asked Rob how he would’ve played the hand in my position, in hindsight I feel I would’ve played it the same. Played a flopped set (although bottom set) fairly “standardly” on the flop IMO. Ran the equity calculator when I got home, and when I shove on the turn I’m a 77% favorite, so sure, I got unlucky, but not sure where I would’ve gone different. A few potential options where things could be changed could be:

– Flop: still feel I’m check-raising here – instead of 3.5k, maybe to 4-5x instead. Honestly felt I was ahead here and from a prior tournament, I did check-raise him on the flop as well, which he then jammed, causing me to fold. Doubt he remembers that history from last year given how frequent he plays, but perhaps he did, and thought he could get a similar outcome. Maybe I just outright check-raise shove knowing that we’ll take a 55k pot our way and make a statement to the table.

– Turn: IMO this shove would be good had the turn not been a club. Guessing he knew he was behind at that point, and if his hand is AhAd… he folds. Unfortunate turn… GG us.

[imalouigi]

Situation #1 — out of position on the bubble, I prefer a jam here. We want see all 5 cards vs. V’s calling range.

I would prefer a smaller 3-bet sizing if anything (not larger). Sizing up works against us in that it reduces our SPR (stack to pot ratio) if V calls. The smaller our SPR, the less fold equity we have lead shoving the flop. If we choose not to jam, I would prefer 40K for a 3-bet sizing which sets up ~ 1.25 to 1 vs. 0.84 to 1 as played. This makes it harder for the hands we want to fold to get away when we miss flop.

[imalouigi]

Situation #2 – I like the smaller C/R sizing as it sets up a good SPR to shove on the turn. We don’t want a fold from over pairs here and C/R too large gives our V an opportunity to get away from their hand We started with 30 bbs. If our opponent happens to have a bigger set or a flush OTT, gg. We still have outs vs. flushes. I am C/R to set up a jam on all turns with this board texture.

I wouldn’t do anything different here than as played, especially considering how flat the payouts are at this point in the tournament. It’s a spot we have to take.

I’d rather get four flushed out the door. The ace on the river is max pain.

[mikey_aces_0023]

@ImaLouigi Appreciate the insight. With the way the hand played out, was wresting with whether I punted with bottom set on the flop, but agreed with that spot in the tournament and a relatively flat payout structure until FT, would’ve rather doubled up and given myself chance to go deep, unfortunate river.

Only other thought would be C/R all-in on the flop, but that’s perhaps too nitty in a situation like this and leaving too much value on the table. Say we play it that way – we scoop up +45k from villain/SB (15% stack) and recapture