2-Pair On Connected Board In Limped Pot With ICM
$400 WSOPC event in Chicago. 318 entries, 57 remain, 48 to be paid. Average stack is about 167k. We have 98k behind after posting the 8k big blind and 8k big blind ante. Our image is tight. We have lost nearly half our stack in the last number of levels due to being card dead on an active table.
UTG with about 150k limps. He limps about 33% with about a 40% VPIP. Folds to us, which is surprising given the action at this table. We check our option with 53o.
Flop (28k) is 7,5,3 rainbow. We check, hoping for a bet or jam as this flop hit his limping range. But he checks back.
Turn (28k) is a 6, and now there is a flush draw on the board. Any 4 just got there. We are beat by 64s, 54s, 65s, A4, 76, and 66. We jam, targeting 7’s, nut flush draws, and overpairs, and to protect our diminishing equity from further bad cards. He snaps with 44.
I think this is a classic case of Fancy Play Syndrome on my part. In an ICM spot, fold equity is so important. I should just lead jam this flop and protect my hand. He might fold away his equity and let me scoop my blinds back as well as his limp. Or I could win at showdown. Letting him catch up to try for the double up is greedy monkey business.
In a limped pot leading out is fine, unlike donking in a normal pot.
2-Pair needs protection in a connected flop.
In ICM situations fold equity is crucial.
In ICM situations picking up the blinds and antes is really important and profitable, and trumps waiting for your opponent to catch up.
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