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2019 Main Event Day 4 with top & bottom
We are ITM of the Main Event with 525,000 (44 bbs) at 6/12K
Daniel Hachem opens to 26K from MP. He has ~$1.5M and massive chip lead at table with a vpip ~40-50% yet is playing very passive post-flop.
Button is playing very tight and hero does not remember him playing any hands since he was moved to the table ~2 hours ago These 2 notes are relevant as to why hero widens calling range pre-flop.
Hero calls in the cutoff with Ks 8s
Button (the main villain) overcalls. SB folds and BB defends.
Flop (122,00): Kd Jd 8x
Checks to hero who bets 70K
Button over-shoves for 523,000. Folds back to us. What do you do and why?
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3 Replies
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I’ve never played the ME before so take this with a grain of salt.
To me this all comes down to how many draws he might have in his range, because you’re in bad shape against all his made hands. You block top and bottom sets (top is unlikely anyway) but you’re way behind JJ (if he flats that pre) and KJ. Doubt he’s calling pre with J8.
You’re flipping against all his good draws and well ahead of his decent ones (say, hands like A2dd), so you need a bunch of those in there to make the call. If we limit his range to JJ/KJ/AQdd/QTdd/A8dd/QTdd/T9dd you’re in rough shape.
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Gross. First, I wonder why I play this game in the first place. If our read is correct and V hasn’t just been supremely card dead, we’re never ahead. Against a more standard opponent, we can see a lot of OESD and diamond draws here, maybe even a few combos of pair + draws (Ad8d?), but against this player type, the guy who has been sitting there for hours folding, I don’t see them risking their entire ME on an unmade hand. The only unmade hand that they might get this frisky with is QdTd, but we don’t love our spot against that hand anyway. And we beat NO true value hands. I firmly believe this player type is flatting a hand like KQ. It’s even possible a player this passive can have KK in this spot.
I feel sick about it, I’m never telling anyone, but we haven’t lost that much yet and I’m likely folding.
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So first, we don’t know exactly how the button will play post flop. If we are certain that they have not played a hand in 2 hours since we have been at the table, then we have zero information, outside of our assumption that pre-flop tightness would translate to post-flop tightness.
On this flop, if we do give them a tight range, I think we can put a few more hands in their range that we beat. Specifically, they are maybe never 3-betting, so they can have all of the top part of their range, and when we consider what might go all-in here, I’d assume that their range is AA/AK/KK/JJ/KJ/QTs/88. Against this we have 46.5% equity. Which mathematically is an easy call.
I think the question then comes down to: does our opponent shove AK/AA is this spot? Because if we remove those hands, we are absolutely crushed. If we remove only AK from his range, we have 31.6% equity and have a very easy fold.
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