[taylormaas]

Kind of a weird spot on a weird board. The major things to remember here, you have the absolute best blocker in the world here with the As. Your opponent almost never has a spade here, and with the specific range you gave them, they NEVER have a spade. Because of this, we have to nut advantage here and the overall range advantage is really complex, but probably similar.

For this hand specifically, I think I lean towards a call. His bet is strange to say the least for all the reasons above. Specifically, he never has a flush or even a flush draw. Given that they bet, I’m assuming their hand strength is something decent because they are probably thinking “why wouldn’t I bet when I hit top pair-top kicker/two pair/set” when in actuality they should be checking. I’d call behind knowing that they have a medium strength hand but you have a ton of outs to potentially catch up.

You’re in position and can play all turn and river cards perfectly. I know the back of your mind is fearing further aggression on the next streets and having to fold a strong flush draw but we don’t need to turn our strong draws into semi-bluffs as often when we are in position.

[websitemark]

That’s helpful, thanks! I’m not sure I’ve ever hit a flop so hard while at the same time being sure that my hand wasn’t much good as-is.

I’ve since run some of this through Equilab and I was doing well against their presumed range (61% equity) on the flop and much further ahead if there were any lower suited connectors in their range. I was a little behind their actual hand (47%) though.

If you’re in the villain’s shoes, do you call the shove holding AA on such a connected board?

[taylormaas]

No, but I’m not going to bet the flop for that same reason that I don’t want to call off vs an opponent that raises me in this spot.

Also, worth noting in your equities that I’m assuming you are basing this off of them CBetting 100% of the time. A lot of the weaker holdings that they have are not going to be betting this flop (i.e. AJo). Vs their perceived CBetting range you are probably worse off than you stated.

[sirgasleak]

I like your play and I play it the same way.

Like you said, your actual hand equity is irrelevant – if you think your hand is behind his range, all that matters are your outs to the nuts.

[ep1ct3tu5]

Good morning website Mark.

I most likely play this hand identically. There is an argument for 3betting pre to say 6.5-7.5 bbs fold to shove but it helps define your hand strength. I get way too attached to AQ/AK in these types of spots. If the stacks were deeper I believe you can get villain off his AA either on flop of turn. Great hand recording by the way.

[websitemark]

Thanks @SirGasleak and @Ep1ct3tu5!

For those wondering, I doubled once after that, but then quickly got hit with a nasty series of back-to-back events… blinds up, SB, BB+BBA, table break and sat in the BB+BBA again. In a flash, I’m under 10bb, pick up 77 and run it (unsuccessfully) into AT. 🤢

I’ll get ’em next time…

[fivebyfive]

I agree with your assessment here postflop. It’s a weird spot. We’ve got a really important blocker, but a pretty marginal hand at this point. This is the exact kind of spot that I’m training myself to use my position more. We’re in a tough spot, and we’re likely facing a tough turn decision (or an easy one if we hit), but not always. I do think V can have a few hands we’re ahead of that are cbetting into a scary board and hoping to take it down right there. Many of those hands will give up on the turn and hope to get to showdown (AJ/TT/99/88). When we shove over the cbet, we’re only getting called by better (unless TT finds a call?).

I’m not criticizing your play. I do this all the time. But I’m trying to stop myself. If we’re out of position, I’m shoving here like you did every time. But with position, we can call, see a turn AND see how our opponent plays that turn. That’s really valuable information.

It’s true that if a 4th spade comes, if you just call you may not get the whole stack. So that would be the counterargument for shoving. But I’d rather see that turn and evaluate rather than likely need to hit a spade when called.

[eanderson85]

Nice hand history format. Very easy to read. The pain of folding and then the Royal Flush card coming out is much higher for me than the pain of me staying in the hand and losing.
Since I’m not folding, the decision is if we want to win stacks when we hit the nuts or not. I’m guessing our second pair-top kicker is not winning at showdown if any more money goes into the pot. Using the rule of two and four, our chances of hitting 12 outs is 48% (very close to Equilab’s 47%). They’ve bet 6/10 pot. We need to call 6/10 to win 22/10 which reduces to 6/22=3/11= 27% pot odds.
This hand fits the calling range with up to a pot sized bet not including implied odds, so there is no issue there.
What is he doing this with? Is he doing this with the first hand I beat? Is this player making this bet on this board with Ace Jack, knowing that we have the Ace of Spades blocker?
Seems optimistic.
Therefore, I assume that we are behind, and it’s really not a good idea to put money in the pot calling when we know we are behind.
Since calling isn’t that good of an idea, the next question is what is our fold equity if we raise? The answer is slim. If he is putting 1/3 of his stack in, he is already priced in to calling it off. Since the math isn’t on your side, the only thing left is ICM and “tournament life”. ICM is minimal, “tournament life” in a $140 varies tremendously from player to player.
Everything is saying to fold, but I have pot odds and a Royal draw, and I’m married to royal draws. I’m not going anywhere, but I’m pot controlling until I improve.
Turns out, villain was as married to his pocket rockets as you were to your draw.
Some relationships are bumpier than others, lol.

[eanderson85]

Just Happened.
Yatahay Network – 600/1200 NL (8 max) – Holdem – 8 players

Vespillo77 (MP): 39.47 BB

extragloves (MP+1): 41.57 BB

MOUSE85 (CO): 90.01 BB

DLSI (BTN): 44.84 BB|
slowplay28 (SB): 51.11 BB
Joewood (BB): 22.95 BB

JROBB (UTG): 47.18 BB

OpCONDORnvr4GT (UTG+1): 61.68 BB

8 players post ante of 0.1 BB, slowplay28 posts SB 0.5 BB, Joewood posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 2.3 BB)

MOUSE85 has 9s Js

JROBB calls 1 BB, fold, fold, fold,
MOUSE85 raises to 3.15 BB, fold, (95% Pot)
slowplay28 calls 2.65 BB, fold,
JROBB calls 2.15 BB

Flop: (11.25 BB, 3 players) Ts 9c Qs

slowplay28 checks,
JROBB checks,
MOUSE85 bets 8.44 BB, (75% Pot)
slowplay28 calls 8.44 BB, fold

Turn: (28.12 BB, 2 players) As

slowplay28 checks,
MOUSE85 bets 7.03 BB, (25% Pot)
slowplay28 calls 7.03 BB

River: (42.19 BB, 2 players) 5h

slowplay28 checks,
MOUSE85 bets 42.19 BB (32.4BB villain all-in), fold

MOUSE85 wins 42.19 BB

royal-draw.jpg 221 KB Image File - Click to view

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