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Aria $600 APC flop decision
Aria APC $600
Level 10
1000/2000/2000
Hero- 170K stack (big stack at table) 85bb
Villain 130k (British, fairly aggressive, but hasn’t showed any weak hands. However, he did catch up from behind twice in flip situations. He had just busted the WSOP $1000 Turbo Bounty and ran over to Aria in time for this tourney. He sat down at max late reg with 30k at 20bb at the beginning of the previous level, and has run it up to 60bb in 30 mins)
9 handed
Villain UTG
Hero CO Q♠︎Q♣︎
Preflop
UTG raises 5K
folds folds folds folds
Hero CO raises 20K
BTN folds SB folds BB folds
UTG calls
Pot 45k
Flop
9♣︎7♣︎4♦︎
UTG checks
CO bets 30K
UTG raises goes all-in 110K
I tanked for a couple of minutes trying to get a read. I talked to him, and he began talking back. He was smiling and was trying to be relaxed, but I think he was a bit uncomfortable. His eyes continued to go back to the board rather than looking at me or staring down. I mentioned that he was suicidal shoving 60bb, and he just kinda smiled and shrugged.
Hero folds.
Such a painful fold. Not sure if it was a mistake. I thought it was more likely that he was on a big draw rather than a set, however 99 would be in his range, and possibly 77. There are several Ac combos available but holding Qc blocks some of his stronger broadway club combos. A♣︎K♣︎, A♣︎J♣︎, A♣︎T♣︎, A♣︎9x?, J♣︎Jx, T♣︎Tx. All of which I am ahead of. He can’t be holding A♣︎Q♣︎, K♣︎Q♣︎, Q♣︎J♣︎, Q♣︎T♣︎, or Q♣︎9♣︎, all of which could normally be in his preflop calling range. Straight/flush combo draws like T♣︎8♣︎, 8♣︎6♣︎ would make more sense for the shove, but does he call the 40k preflop with those? He could maybe have AA or KK, but I think these are 4 bets from this player out of position preflop.
Our table broke shortly after this, and I asked him as we were walking away what he could possibly have to make that move. I suggested that the only thing that made sense was 99 or open ended with a flush draw. All he said was, you are pretty close with the second guess. I told him I was surprised that he would shove that many blinds on a draw, and he responded that has to get his chips “somehow” or something along those lines. Even knowing that he was willing to gamble, I couldn’t bring myself to call off most of my 80 bb stack with the non-nuts. I would have been left with around 40k (20bb). Instead, I still had a 60bb stack. Very painful! It was a tournament chip preservation decision in the end, but not sure it was the best EV decision. Thoughts?
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2 Replies
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Ugly spot. But this might be the type of spot we have to take to give us the best chance of running deep in tournaments. In spite of the fact you blocked flush draws, he still had many more combos of flushdraws than sets. Don’t forget the possibility of a flat call with aces. We can discount that 50%. It seems doubtful he would flat call your 3-bet with KK.
One thing I noticed in this WSOP is alot of players getting the stacks in on the light side. You weren’t at the WSOP, though.
One thing I’d say is your 3-bet sizing might have been too heavy. 2.7-3x would be preferable in position. His calling the 4x 3-bet indicates a very strong range, expecially from an EP player.
Range Trainer Pro makes this a call, using standard bet sizes preflop. In fact it calls with all the overpairs.
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I don’t play live $600 tourneys myself so I can only answer based on what I hope I would do, but I would (hopefully) have a hard time folding QQ there. This isn’t “old man coffee” you’re up against here. The guy busted a $1k and then ran over here to max late reg and has managed to spin up his small stack pretty quickly, which gives me the picture of an experienced player who either got hit hard by the deck since he joined or plays pretty aggressively. I think it’s going to be difficult to run deep in big tourneys if you’re not prepared to commit with less than the nuts in a spot like this.
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