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Bad Call w/ small pair
50/100 — Home Game last night
EP min-raises to $200, I call in the cutoff, SB calls.
Flop is QhTs8h.
SB checks, EP checks, I bet $200. SB calls.
On the turn, the board is Qh Ts 8h 8s.
SB checks, I check
On the river, the board is Qh Ts 8h 8s 2c.
SB leads out 1/2 pot. I call with pocket 33 and win.
What do you think my opponent has?
What hands can I beat?
Is this a good call?
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10 Replies
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When the board reads <b style=”font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit;”>Qh Ts 8h 8s 2c
<b style=”font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit;”>
Overview
- Strongest —
- full-house = 88, QQ, TT, 22, Q8, T8, 82
- straight = J9
- Medium —
- trips = A8, K8, J8, 98
- two-pair = QT, JJ, 99
- pair + FD = AsQs, AhTh, JhTh
- open-ender + FD = KhJh, KsJs, 9h7h, 9s7s
- gut-shot + FD = AsKs, AhKh, AsJs, AhJh, As9s, Ah9h,
- Weak —
- two-pair = AA, KK
- pair + FD = KsQs, KhTh
- gut-shot + FD = Kh9h, Jh7h, Js7s, 9s6s, 9h6h, 7s6s, 7h6h
Pocket 33 can beat the following hands:
(KhJh, KsJs, 9h7h, 9s7s, AsKs, AhKh, AsJs, AhJh, As9s, Ah9h, Kh9h, Jh7h, Js7s, 9s6s, 9h6h, 7s6s, 7h6h). This represents 17 combos.
Pocket 33 is losing to the following hands:
(88, QQ, TT, 22, Q8, T8, 82, J9, A8, K8, J8, 98, QT, JJ, 99, AsQs, AhTh, JhTh, AA, KK, KsQs, KhTh). This represents 1+3+3+3+6+6+6+16+8+8+8+8+4+6+6+1+1+1+6+6+1+1 = 99 combos
Pocket 33 is behind and can only beat ~15% of the combinations. I think it was a bad call and I don’t think I make this call very often. One thing that played a major role was “the river”. Virtually every draw missed. If my opponent has a draw, they shouldn’t check this river because I will likely check behind with most hands and win. They would be giving up. Instead, most players will try to represent something and take a stab to get the medium strength hands to fold. For me, this increased his/her chances of bluffing on the river. My hand 33 is the weakest of the weak and it should fold most times to this bluff. If my opponent checks the river, this represents a hand that has showdown value like (AsQs, AhTh, KsQs, KhTh, JhTh, JJ, 99) to possibly plan on check/calling if I bet river. This helps me eliminate some of those hands because I don’t think they will lead out river.
I found a call but I think there is more merit to find a fold.
The results don’t matter.
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I’m unclear on stack sizes here which would be helpful in making the decisions, but I’m assuming we’re all around home game starting (so 30bb).
This is a board and texture that is fairly neutral, but if it favors anyone, it favors SB. I’d argue that SB *should* be check raising a lot on this flop. A SB calling range is all over this kind of board and they should represent those hands.
So I’d also then argue that this is a good flop to check back on and see a turn. Based on this texture, I’d argue that it is mostly a mistake for SB to call a bet here that can’t beat 33. Those marginal hands with equity should be check raising. I would be flatting from SB here with some nutted hands, many single paired hands like KQ, QJ, Q9, T9, 98, 99, 77, and a few marginal Jx with one heart that can spike some major equity or the nuts for a cheap price.
So I would check back this flop and give up on the 8s turn if I faced a bet. I may still be able to navigate to a river and evaluate there. But with our current holding, this is only a one street hand unless we spike a 3. And since I have position, I don’t need to make the flop that street yet. I can wait to see how the hand develops.
Once we bet on the flop and get called, it is villain dependent, but I’m mostly done with this hand. Sometimes we call on this river and V has hearts or a busted straight draw, but with this action, we need to be right more than 25% of the time. I don’t think we will be.
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Let’s look at an opponent profile that most favors a call.
- SB preflop calling range includes all AXo, any two broadway cards, AXs thru JXs, suited connectors and suited one-gappers.
- SB plays two pairs and sets aggressively on this draw heavy flop. So SB would check raise your flop bet with QT, Q8, T8, 88, etc..
- SB plays draws by check calling (never leading or check raising).
- Facing your flop bet, the pure draws that SB continues with are open ended straight draws (KJ), all A high and K high flush draws (AsXs, KsXs), medium strength flush draws with gutshots (Jh7h, 9h7h, 7h6h) and gutshots with backdoor flush draws (Js7s, 9s7s, 7s6s)
- SB has a polar betting strategy on the river with a betting range of value (sets [22], trips [8x] and straights[J9]) and bluffs (missed draws), and checking hands with showdown value (single pairs and A highs).
SB value hands that all beat you: J9, A8, K8, J8s, 98s, 22
16+4+4+1+1+3= 29 combinations
Bluffs that you beat: KJ, KhXh, Jh7h, Js7s, 9h7h, 9s7s
16+5+1+1+1+1=25 combinations
25/(25+29) = 46%
Holding 33, you are winning 46% of the time. This is more that the 33% equity that you need to break even by calling a 1/2 pot bet.
If you don’t think your opponent fits this exact profile (on the flop raises draws, flats two pairs, folds gutshots and backdoors, bets single pairs on the river), then a call becomes less profitable.
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Another consideration is what range of hands are you arriving with on the river?
Do you have any Tx that bets flop and checks turn? 8x? Do you any pure bluffs that stabbed flop and checked turn to realize? Where is 33 in this range? Facing a 1/2 pot bet, we can fold the bottom part of the range. But if 33 is at the top of this range, we should be calling.
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Great post @Binkley
Also, good playing with you last night.
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I assume you’re Wolfman109. Congrats on the win. Enjoy playing and discussing hands with you.
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@ARW Thanks! Glad I could follow up your win on Thursday with my own last night. There seems to be something about these hand history discussions.
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So many great posts in these forums, just personally I’m really impressed with the strategy conversations that we’re exploring here in our FIRST WEEK! Way to go, RecPoker Nation. I wish we could all ‘cheers’ with a Grolsch!
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