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  • Bad Decisions with KQ in Nightly

    Posted by arw on November 28, 2020 at 9:58 pm

    Nightly Tourney — REC POKER

    23 left

    I have 30 bb to start the hand and I min-raise with KQ in the cutoff. The button (35 bb), the small blind (11 bb), and the big blind (103 bb) all call to see the flop.

    We go 4 Ways to the flop of Q65 rainbow (pot = 11 bb).

    The short stack has 9 bb left and leads All In into 3 other players. (pot = 20 bb)

    The largest stack folds from the big blind.

    I call 9 bb. (pot = 29 bb)

    The button min-raises to 18 bb. (pot = 47 bb).

    I can either:

    • fold w/ a net loss of 11 bb
    • call 9 bb w/ 10 bb remaining
    • shove 19 bb meaning that I would be raising 10 bb more.

    AA, KK – the button would have likely 3-bet pre-flop with a big pocket pair. I don’t see these hands in anyone’s range.

    AQ — the button would have likely 3-bet pre-flop with this.

    QJ, QT — the button would have called 2 bb pre-flop with these worse Q’s but I don’t think they will min-raise very often given an all-in and a call. These hands wouldn’t raise for value.

    JJ, TT — these hands are medium strength pocket pairs. After an All-In and a call, these types of hands are more likely to fold on the flop than min-raise.

    66, 55 — the button would have called 2 bb pre-flop with small pocket pairs like 5’s and 6’s. It makes sense for a set to min-raise given the action. They should be confident that they are ahead and should go for thin value. The min-raise supports this idea.

    I sucked at poker tonight. This is one of those spots where I made a mistake, realized it, and then compounded it to make it much worse. Some may call this kind of a cooler and that I’m being results-oriented, but these spots happen and I need to learn to avoid them. In hindsight, I think the voices “told me I was beat” but I simply ignored their advice. This hand walked like a duck and quacked like a duck. For some reason, I didn’t notice.

    jim replied 3 years, 4 months ago 3 Members · 2 Replies
  • 2 Replies
  • fivebyfive

    November 29, 2020 at 10:23 am

    This is a rough one. We have a low enough SPR that I don’t mind getting it in when we hit top pair second kicker, but given the nature of this board and opponent betting, it’s hard to envision the button doing this with anything that doesn’t beat us.

    Since the SB has shoved and Button will need to showdown no matter what, I can’t see this being a draw, bluff, or worse Q of any kind. And even if Button is trying to force you out with a worse hand to get heads up against a weaker SB range, Button should be shoving to increase fold equity. The min raise is the worst choice with all of those holdings—I can see a flat, fold, or shove before I can reconcile a min-raise.

    Finally, when we flat the SB shove, we’re doing that precisely to be able to fold in this exact spot. Otherwise, we should be shoving over the top. So this hurts, but I think you’re right, we can narrow button down to an extremely narrow value range here—this is a fold.

  • jim

    November 29, 2020 at 7:17 pm

    I think you two have nailed it – the point about villain having to show down vs the SB shover makes a huge difference to how often they can be bluffing, and since they are choosing to minimize their own fold equity that often correlates to top-of-range value. I could also see them playing 65s this way but it’s getting a little short preflop to be calling that with a shove stack in the blinds. @ARW good to see you again!

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