[jim]

@JonLutsey It was so weird playing in this hand with you when we had just finished talking in the OPaH about how I shouldn’t shove flops like that when I have top pair – because it’s so good to bluff! What do you think as the other player in the hand, do you fold or call if I shove the flop? That seems like the real question – @schneidz33 and I audibly groaned when the Ace came on the river hahaha

[jonlutsey]

I almost typed in the chat after the hand that I would have folded to shove before the river. When I called, I was planning to fold to river shove if the A did not come. When it did, I was hoping you were shoving. But your read was too good.

[jim]

That’s amazing, I think we both played the hand in a pretty savvy fashion given the dynamics of the earlier conversation. Poker is such a fun game! Probably plays out differently if we hadn’t just been talking about that kind of spot. Good read yourself! Almost got me! *cheers (with a Grolsch)*

[arw]

Hero has Kd9d has 25 bb at the start of the hand

Villain has him covered with 57 bb.

Pre-Flop

Villain raises to about 3 bb

Another player calls 3 bb

Hero raises to about 10 bb

One caller

Pot Size is (30 * 9 + 125 + 250 + 2000 + 2000 + 625) = 5270 or 21 bb.

Flop

The flop is K62 rainbow.

The hero has invested 10 bb and has ~14 bb remaining.

Action goes check check.

Pot Size = 21 bb

Turn

The board reads K627 rainbow.

The villain checks, hero bets 1000 or 4 bb, villain calls to see the river.

Pot Size = 29 bb

River

The board reads K627A.

Action goes check check.

Pot size = 29 bb

_______________________________________________________________

K9 suited is not the best hand to make this play when you only have 25 bb to start the hand. If the villain is loose like a goose, then yes, this seems correct. Against most opponents, I think it is a losing play to 3-bet K9 suited against the opening range of a pre-flop raiser. They would need to have the tendency to raise/fold under pressure and I would need some leverage with my stack size. You only have 25 bb and this limits your post-flop options. Especially, when the pot size has been bloated to 21 bb pre-flop by your 3-bet and a call.

On the flop,

• the pot is huge (21 bb)
• you have top pair + nine kicker
• you have 11 bb left in your stack

By 3-betting pre-flop, you would be representing a stronger range:

• Big Pairs (AA, KK, QQ, JJ, TT)
• Big Aces (AK, AQ, AJ, AT)
• Big Kings (KQ, KJ, KT, K9

If these hands are in your 3-bet range, then c-betting them might be good for balance.

• Broadways (QJ, JT)
• Connectors (T9, 98, 54)

On the turn,

• the pot is 21 bb
• you bet 4 bb with only 7 bb behind
• your opponent calls

It’s safe to say that the villain is calling with something. But What??

• if they have a set, why aren’t they raising?
• if they have two pair, why aren’t they raising?
• if they have a better king, why aren’t they raising?

On the river

• the pot is 29 bb
• both players check when the Ace hits

The ace on the river is not good for your hand but it is good for your range. You should be holding a lot stronger aces than he/she has in their raise/calling range. The ace helps your range. Especially after your (forgive me), fishy 1000 bet on the turn to “reel them in”.

Shove the Flop!!!

Taking down the 21 bb pot w/o showdown is a huge win.

[jim]

I love this take @ARW – my concern was that because it’s SUCH a good hand for bluff-shoving, that my opponent would always fold when I shoved the flop with hands that I might get chips from on later streets. I completely agree that the balanced approach is to include this hand in a linear value shoving range on the flop – especially at this SPR – but I might prefer to do it on a similar flop when I did NOT have such a strong hand, like Q62r or something similar, because it will elicit the same folds with that bluff that I am afraid of eliciting now with my value shove. I love the way you are applying the theory and mathematics of bet sizing and equity to these hands, these are extremely rich responses.

[arw]

Taking down 21 bb on the flop is a huge victory.

Thank you @Jim for the kind words.

🙂

[jim]

Keep it up @ARW ! I love your style of analysis. On this flop with this holding, is your flop shove a value bet or a bluff?

[jim]

Maybe this is a good place to define why one might choose to make a bet in any given spot: this kind of consensus on terms is vital to any rigorous discussion. I think two widely-accepted terminologies in the rec poker world would include “Bluff” bets – where the goal is to elicit FOLDS from hands that we lose to, and “Value” bets – where the goal is to elicit CALLS from hands that lose to us. I know that is very simplified, so I’d love to hear some different definitions for these two classes of bets, and I’m also interested in whether the flop shove in this spot is a Value bet or a Bluff bet, or a third kind of bet that involves protecting your equity in the hand, or preventing your foes from realizing their equity in the hand, and how you might define that third class of bets.

[rabman50]

Sorry Jim bad plan. ARW gave a fantastic analysis so I won’t elaborate on that. Just a couple of questions. What hand were you targeting for your “Value Bet”? Have you watched the April 2020 seminar Part two on SPR and Bet Sizing? Do you always go for for thin value with top pair weak kicker? Have you ever heard of FPS?

[jim]

Hee hee Rob all good points: I was value-targeting any hand that would have made one pair by the river. Since my pair was the king, any card other than the ace would make a call slightly more likely on the river than on the turn, imo. And I have FPS tattooed on my forearm! (not really, but let’s just say I am VERY familiar with it lol)

[binkley]

Great break-down by ARW. I really like how he recaps the hand.

The problem with a check, bet small, jam strategy is that it allows your opponent to fully realize his equity. Hands that missed the board will not call any river bet.

At the low SPR, it makes more sense to make it a two street game. Bet flop small and jam turn. Weaker hands (overcards and draws) are more likely to call on the turn with another card to come.

[jim]

I am loving all these replies! @Binkley I agree hands that miss the board will not call any river bet, so they are folds anyway – nothing we can do about that. But we are playing with someone we just had a conversation with about this exact spot, so we are 100% in exploit mode here and value betting, not bluffing – we want to get CALLS in this spot by worse hands, not force them to fold (in my opinion). I am basically treating the money in the pot as mine already with top pair on this runout. And the times that the river makes me a loser will be outweighed by the times I make a little more in the pot because he makes a worse pair or decides to bluff – even if that doesn’t happen very often. Keep replying folks, I love thinking about this stuff and I know I’m wrong as often as I’m right! What am I missing?

[jim]

so far my favourite comment @Binkley you are absolutely correct that your line of flop/turn will get more hands to come along on the turn than my turn/river line will on the river, that’s an excellent point. Can we do that with a balanced range while also having a balanced shoving range on the flop at this stack size? I guess it doesn’t matter because this line is meant to be exploitive-only anyway. Hey @JonLutsey what do you think, would you have called a tiny bet on the flop in that spot? He did call a 3bet preflop so there’s a better chance than usual that he has a not-terrible holding that can stand up to a few different flop textures. Maybe that was a better line! I think because we had just been discussing this exact spot 5 minutes earlier he still would have raised some red flags, even with a small cbet. If stacks were deeper, then a smaller cbet seems like clearly the better option, even on such a perfectly dry board.

[jonlutsey]

That would have been interesting. Preflop, I liked my hand and was ready to call an all-in from anyone but mbabker based on stack sizes. When I called your 3bet, I was expecting you to go all-in if you bet on following streets. I’m not sure I would have called a small bet on the flop. I would have treated it like an all-in, as I would expect you to go all-in on the turn on anything besides an A. And if a club, Q, or J came, I would have been in a tougher spot as some of my backdoor possibilities would be there. As it was, I could call a small bet on the turn because I would not have to think about future cards on the river.

[binkley]

Think about which line maximally exploits your opponent’s tendencies. If opponent calls too much, then increase cbets for value. If he stabs often with air, then check the flop with more of your value hands.

[arw]

@rabman50

What is poker FPS? — I’m thinking about (frames per second)

[taylormaas]

I thought it was “Fold Preflop, Stupid”

🙂

[rabman50]

Fancy Play Syndrome. I like to keep is simple. You are usually better off using a straight forward strategy. When you mix in a fancy play your opponent has to react the way you think he should. If your opponent doesn’t recognize the situation you are representing then he is not inclined to do what you want him to do. Therefore FPS is something to avoid.