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Bet sizing on final table.
I’ve been on a downswing this year. This session put my bankroll down to where I was going to have to reload if I didn’t win something, so I was happy to make a final table. I knocked out 4th place to get the chip lead, and here we are. I am interested in my play every street, particularly bet sizing. I think the outcome would have been the same, but I feel that I didn’t play optimal. I don’t know, maybe I should have gotten out of the pool somewhere. I heard the lifeguard blowing the whistle but I didn’t listen. Let me know how you would have played it differently, and how my opponent played.
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4 Replies
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Just my two cents worth. We all know that any of my advice should be taken with a grain of salt! But since so many people respond to my posts I thought I’d give it a try. For the most part on a paired board with high cards where the pair is the highest card, I find that a small bet will knock out everyone that doesn’t have one of those two cards, a pocket pair, or a draw. With a rainbow flop there is no flush draw here. So if my bet gets called I know I am against one of these. The only straight draws are 9 10, 10 Q, and AQ.
The turn is particularly tough here since it does complete a straight, and pairs with a higher card than yours that would have called with a straight draw (AQ). However, you can argue that either of these are not in their range after just completing from the SB). I would choose to make a big bet here (3/4 pot?) to find out where I stand. It is going to fold most underpairs. If I get called I’m now likely chopping or behind. They now most likely have a K, Q or J, or A 10. I may even fold out a few weaker Js.
If I get called here I’m never leading the river, and am quite often folding to a bet. I just don’t think there is much I am ahead of. I guess the only thing that could change my mind of course, is a J on the river! Now I’m ahead of AQ and A 10 (if they even got here). But I’m still behind any Kx which I think makes up the majority of their range, along with a lot of Jx
When they suddenly lead out on the river, I believe at best I am chopping the hand. I likely would have ended up calling here real time on the river and lost, but still had some chips to play with. Having had time to analyze it, I think it is a really hard fold, but a correct one.
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A one-card under-full on a 2-pair high card board is at best a bluff catcher. Even though the river “improved” your hand to a full house, you had a bluff catcher.
Full houses are nothing to get excited about and married to on 2-pair and trips boards.
As ranges narrow down during a runout, trips become more and more likely and by the river you must account for them.
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