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Big Blind Defense — very favorable runout for our range
Hey all,
Played this hand last night on stream and curious what your plan of action would be on the river.
Player from MP (55 BBs) opens to 2.2 BBs, folds to us in the BB (54 BBs) w Ac4c. We could opt to 3Bet here, but we are getting close to the money and its against the other big stack, and there is a ton of short stacks (10-20 BBs) so I just call.
(5.8 BBs) Flop: Qd 4h 5h
Flop is decent for us here, but still not great. Our opponent CBets small 1.75 BBs and we call.
(9.4 BBs) Turn: 7c
We better turn card for our range than our opponent’s. We still decide to check rather than go for a lead. We check and they bet 6.2 BBs. Can definitely find a fold here with just bottom pair and no re-draws, but out opponent is pretty capped here, so ultimately I find a call. Anyone do anything different?
(21.7 BBs) River: 3c
Again, a great runout for our range. But not really for our exact hand. What do we do here? lead? check/call? check/fold? What does RecPoker Nation think?
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1 Reply
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I think I’m folding turn. I’m not sure why you think his range is capped – while he likely doesn’t have 86 for the nut straight, he can have a bunch of 6x hands for the second nuts. Plus he can have several sets, along with KK/AA (though I would discount QQ based on his line) and AQ/KQ. That’s a whole lot of hands that have you in really bad shape on the turn facing a 2/3 pot barrel. Calling the turn bet means you’re either in full bluff-catching mode, or hoping to hit an Ace or 4 on the river – and even then you might be drawing dead.
As played the river is a tough spot because you’re only beating his air and losing to all his value. What air does he get to the river with? Some missed Ax combos, particularly ones with hearts, but you block all the Ac combos. Maybe some other broadway combos, like KJ/KT, particularly hearts.
Problem is we know he also has a lot of value in his range, so the question is how much of that value range might he fold to a river bet? You certainly have more 6x your range than he does, so if you lead out for a nice large river bet here, will he fold his KK/AA/AQ/KQ? Not sure we can count on him to fold sets but maybe.
I think I go for it on the river. Without counting the combos I’m estimating that he just doesn’t have enough air to make x/calling +ev, and I think the weaker value stuff makes up a big portion of his range. Going with a big polarizing bet will put a lot of pressure on most of his non-6x combos.
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