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Big ICM Spot, exploitative shove?
So I went out in 11th in the $100k megastack yesterday, and I faced a really interesting dilemma. I ended up folding this hand preflop and took a spot a couple orbits later that didn’t work out, but I marked this one for study and it is fairly interesting to me. I’d be curious about opinions on it.
Here is the situation. There are 12 left in this tournament. We’ve just laddered and the next pay bump is at 9 (see prize pool photo). We are sitting 11/12 in the tournament with the other short stack on the other table. I’ve run this spot in HRC and this is marginal, but a pretty clear fold at equilibrium (-0.17% table equity when we jam with KJo here). Equilibrium assumes that our UTG opponent is opening about 21% of their range.
The trick is that UTG is opening a LOT. Really starting to abuse their chip lead and the FT bubble dynamic that is starting to build. We have seen one hand go to showdown during this stretch from them (Q9o from UTG/LJ). The Q9o is heavily on my mind as I tank. I’m not aware of the exact range I need them to have in the moment, but I do know that Q9o is a fold. So they are too wide.
But how wide does Villain have to be to make this a profitable shove? I’ve now run some calculations and the sweet spot is around 35% of their range (any ace, any broadway, any pair, K5s+, Q8s+, T9s/98s/87s/76s, K8o+, Q9o+). If they’re there or above, we can start to make an exploitative shove here. That is very wide. But the fact that Q9o is on the edge of that range means they could be there or above (I, of course, didn’t know all this exactly in game), but I was considering a shove here. I ultimately folded. What are your thoughts on this spot and how do you make these kinds of decisions in game?
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5 Replies
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A bit more info would be helpful. Relative positions and his stack size at a minimum. Also, the shorty at the other tables stack would be interesting, if not critical.
Generally, if he’s opening too wide, I’d be thinking that Q9o might not be the absolute bottom of his range. If his stack is really huge, he may be raising ATC
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See the table image. Should have all the relevant info. Including all stacks at table.
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This is a fun hand for a few reasons. One our stack size makes this pretty difficult. We’re the short stack at the table, but we aren’t really near the danger zone yet. 15 BBs is more than playable in the late stages of a tournament. And then we are up against the chip leader at the table that probably is playing a bit wide, but they are able to in this spot. And then third, there’s two other players left to act and one of them is a large stack as well.
So in this exact hand, I’d just fold. I think KJo, from this spot at this stack size is too wide to be shoving. And I think we should be looking to shove a lot vs the big stack opens. But I don’t want to have a hand that’s going to be dominated by so much of their calling range.
But what’s interesting is what we do with other hands. I think KJo is close, but if we had KJs or KQo, how would we approach this spot? I think I’d have a relatively split range between calling and jamming, which is weird for me to say, because with ICM it kinda feels like it should be a shove or fold spot. But I think we have enough playability with out stack that I’d like to call some hands that play well, along with AA/KK as traps. So maybe something like AA/KK/88/77, KQs, KJs, QJs are calls and then 99-QQ, AT+, A5s are jams?
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First of all – congrats on your awesome run and big score here! WTG!
We are short in this tournament and likely to go out before the next pay jump according to our stack size. This gives us more incentive to shove in any spots we get. When you talk about our equity, are you factoring in our fold equity if we shove here?
I love this spot to consider a shove vs an opponent that is possibly opening too wide, even when called, we have considerable equity vs their range.
Tough decision in game, but I like this for a 3bet all in, our opponent does not want to lose the chip lead here and will likely call tighter than optimal.
GO FOR IT!
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I’m going to be the voice of reason (lol). What’s wrong with a call? Not the aggressive action you’d normally take in this spot, but both your stack and hand make this a tough situation.
You are in position, though, with a hand that is playable post flop and usually flops well. If it doesn’t this time you don’t continue. Your getting a price that almost compensates for the bad stuff.
If either of the blinds wake up with hand, you can always re-evaluate once all of the other action is complete.
A consideration here must be giving the bigger stacks the illusion that you have a weaker hand than you actually do, while setting up a possible big stack confrontation which might allow you to ladder. One of the reasons some pros keep that one chip back in certain situations. Similar move with much less downside.
In game, depending on my reads of my table mates, I’d likely be 40/20/40 or thereabouts. But if the Big Stack is playing silly buggers a whole lot, my calling percentage would likely go much higher than 20 and folding pre-flop much lower than 40.
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