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Bluff lines and sizing
I’ve been working on mocking up some postflop lines where I know I’m only going to get two streets of value, so I need two-street bluff lines to balance. I’m not being very scientific about if from a combos point of view, but I’m basically looking for spots where I’m in position and could be using the check/bet/bet line instead of the bet/bet/check line when I want to get two streets of value. These are typically flops where a conventional c-bet would fold out some of the hands we’d rather get calls from later.
So in this hand I open the CO to 2.1x with 98s and am called from the SB but the BB folds. in retrospect I have already played the hand wrong, because I am the effective stack of 75 BBs and I should be opening to 2.5x or even 3x here instead. BAD BLUFFSTORINI!
(604) flop comes Kc6d6h
Anyway, this is a decent example of the kind of flop I would typically c-bet and take down, so if I had a hand like TT-QQ or a bad KX there would be an argument for checking and extracting a bet on a future street since the board is so dry and scary already, and we weaken our range by checking behind the flop. Hands with even less showdown value or equity might be better cbet candidates because the foe folds so often, and they have less showdown value. In this case, we check behind and the turn comes:
(604) Kc6d6h Turn 3d
Foe checks the turn, and now I think I am in a good spot. I am in position, and although my range is capped by checking the flop, I still clearly have a range advantage and can bet a wide range of value and bluffs. In this case I have total air, even my runner-runner straight has abandoned me, but I want to bet hands like TT here so I chose a sizing that seems to tell the standard story, and I bet 308 into the pot of 604 and the foe calls, which they should probably be doing pretty wide here.
(1220) K6633 rainbow
Foe checks the river, and we are left playing the board’s 2pr to the K. This is pretty close to the gin card for us to rep the mid-pair to bluff at I think, as our Ace-high likely checks behind and we can get foe off a chop here. But how much to bet? How much would we want to bet with TT and get called by worse? IRL we bet 600 into 1220 and foe folds. Anyone have sizing thoughts? Is it even worth developing 2-street lines like this? Obviously it’s often better to bluff more on earlier streets and less on later streets but like all general rules I like to examine the edges and cusp cases!
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1 Reply
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For a flop of Kc6d6h, the CO does have a slight range advantage over SB. But I don’t think it’s huge. Given the dryness of the flop, CO could check their entire range. This would not cap the CO range.
Turn: 3d. This is still a very dry board. A delayed cbet by CO should fold out much of SB range.
River: 3s.
A lot of hands are playing the board and can chop at best. Ax and pocket pairs (44+) are unlikely to fold to any bet less than pot sized. As played, we are discounting Kx, 6x, and 3x.
This is an interesting spot to bet. A half pot bet should never get a non-chop hand to fold. So the bet is aimed at winning half the pot.
Pot = 1220
1/2 pot = 610
Bet = 600
This is a profitable bet if SB is holding Ax or 44+ less than half the time on the river.
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