[rabman50]

Call me nit and you won’t be the first one but I fold the turn. We lost our back door straight draw and have one card to try and catch our flush. Our hand is a very poor bluff-catcher and we are behind so much of their range. I didn’t go through an extensive range analysis but my gut says to fold.

[bchip]

Fold to the 3x+ reraise on the turn. His reraise is not the outcome you were looking for and indicates a hand you cannot beat currently. You need to hit and he’s not giving you the proper odds to do so.

I likely wouldn’t have raised his turn bet. It was small enough to comfortably draw.

Regardless, as played, raise/fold spot.

[eanderson85]

Thanks for your replies.
Opponent is a 33/27/10 over 49 hands, with an RFI of 48%.

On the flop I have a BDFD and a BDSD, meaning not only do I have blockers to the nuts, but I can also still hit the nuts, which makes this a great check/raise bluff candidate. I also want to build the pot while this deep to get paid when I do hit. The SPR is 16, so I have some work to do.

Should I have checked the turn after improving? What size bet am I calling after I check? Why?
After being raised on the turn, I am being given 20% pot odds with a 19.57% chance to hit the nut flush- before implied odds. The SPR is 2.
That being said, nobody bluff-raises enough to balance their 3/4 pot 2-bet after being check-raised and c-bet, and my blockers now block their bluffs. They are strong. When I do hit the nuts implied odds are there. Let’s hope the board doesn’t pair in my suit and give them a full house or quads (7 outs on turn = 15.22%).

I need to call 3/4 pot to win 10/4, meaning I should call 30% of the time or they are printing money with any two cards. If population (me, in this case) is over folding, then this would be a long-term profitable bet for anyone anytime.
Something to ponder.
If I am always folding to this raise, then I am easier to play against than an ATM.
Would a 33/27/10 know this?
How do I look this up in Pokertracker?

What range do you put them on?
What hands WOULD you call with?
What’s in your raising bucket if not the nut draw? If you are never bluffing, what are you expecting to get called by when you bet? Or is bottom set a bluff? If you are never raising at all, you are letting your opponent set the price they want with no risk.

[fivebyfive]

My first thought about this hand, is this cash or tournament? It likely changes our approach a bit. But either way, we don’t have a ton of hands on villain, so we can’t make huge decisions either way with this, but we have seen enough to start to say that they are very active. I love this kind of hand class as a preflop 3bet vs an active opener. We can fold out hands that dominate us like KJo/KTo and get a better sense of how to approach our postflop decisions. But against a more standard opponent, I am flatting this a decent amount, so we’ll be in this spot fairly frequently.

Once we face a small cbet, I prefer the raise to a call here, but I think I mostly just fold here. We have backdoor equity, yes, but we honestly have a lot of holdings with such equity (K9s/K8s/K5s/K4s/Q9s/Q8s/Q5s/Q4s/J9s/J8s/T9s in three varieties of suits). I do like the Kx versions and spade versions best, because if we hit our flush, it will be the nuts, but that won’t happen all that often. This is why I like the raise over a call, but I also mostly just prefer a fold because I think we have stronger options to take to the streets here.

It’s true that UTG may be wider than most, so this might widen our raising range, but it is still a UTG range and unless we think our opponent is completely unaware positionally, we need to take that into account. Our villain has also only cbetted 60% of the time, so we can’t just expect them to have their whole range here. In the end, I don’t think we have all that many check raises on this board against UTG. I’d mostly construct it with sets and two pair for value and higher equity bluffs and value with equity (so holdings like A7/77/85s/54s/98s/T8s).

And when I do think they might be wide and I do build K8s into the raising range, when called, we are basically never ahead. It’s great to have backdoor equity realized when the T comes the Js, but what are we trying to accomplish by leading this turn? Is TheVagusNerve folding their good Ax? I’d far rather check call and hope to realize equity on the river. When we bet and get raised, we have the nut draw which we’ll hit around 20% of the time. So I do agree that we have some direct odds to make this call, BUT I don’t agree that we have all that much in the way of implied odds. If a spade comes, are we really getting paid? How? Are we leading big to get called by AA or something? Are we hoping to check and come over the top of their value bet of AK or whatever? This is part of why I really prefer the check call line here. I just don’t think we can plan to get stacks in when we hit all that often. When we check call, we can reasonably check a river spade and have them go for value with their AK, but when we call a check raise, they are just checking back a spade every time. And we can’t just start betting big out of flow on the river and expect to get paid that much except by something like AA or JJ.