[jamin96]

I think everything was fine until the turn. I really don’t mind calling on the flop to see what my opponent does on the turn. I find a lot of players stab on the flop and then check on the turn when they get called, even aggressive opponents will slow down. Once they pot the turn its so polar and there is no way for our hand to improve unless we hit one of the two tens. We unblock flush draws without having a spade which is nice but if they had a flush draw I don’t know if they chose a pot sized bet. @PetVet makes fun of me for being sticky but I think even for me I’m folding the turn.

[fivebyfive]

That donk lead would’ve really thrown me off too. I completely agree that a weak Ax should not be taking this line very often. In fact, I’d argue that in theory V should be checking range in this spot, but that’s what makes this line so weird. Some players will just ignore that this is a 3 bet pot and donk with value though, so I wouldn’t discount the two pair and sets as much as you do. I’m giving V some of those extreme value combos (A7s/A3s/77/33), some good club draws, and lots of Ax. I’m not excluding the weaker top pairs. In my experience, flop donk bets are weighted heavily to top pairs.

So okay, I’m definitely calling the flop bet, but I’m wary. Even if this is an exploitable line, we have to respect that donk bets more often include value than not. It can be weak value, but it is often something. When V pots turn, the only thing we beat are club draws. With the Ac on the board, there aren’t all that many club draws left that call a 3 bet. If we’re being generous, there are probably 8 combos: KQ/KJ/KT/QJ//QT/JT/T9/98. Maybe a few more if V is loose. There are more combos remaining of just the extreme value (A7s/A3s/77/33) than those. Plus, if we think V can have any other Ax combos that take this line, we’re in a world of trouble for this bet sizing.

Here’s the thing, we have so many better hands in our range to call this down with. I’ve been known to do the same thing you did in game, especially against these kinds of strange lines that feel off. It might almost be a curiosity that ends of killing me. But when we think about these spots, we should fold them when we can. I’m trying to get better at doing that myself. Weird lines are hard to play against, but I’ve really started to approach nonsensical donk bets with the same refrain: “They have something, can I beat something?”

[elvida]

Bluff catching with 2nd pair is dangerous. For villain to triple barrel and put his whole stack in with air (or an underpair) is maniacal. Probably doesn’t happen all that often. And if it does, it may not happen often enough for calling to be profitable. Thus, even if you can’t logically get there based on your read, it may be better to get bluffed off a single pair then to walk home saying he shouldn’t have had that hand. (i.e., A5 shouldn’t have played this way, but as you say, people do a lot of things they wouldn’t do in a real money game…like calling off with TT on an A7348 board…)

That said, poker is a game of incomplete information. You made a read, you trusted your gut, you were just wrong. It happens.

[arw]

@jacob-kieke

I like how you described the hand and your thought process.

I like to always look at the numbers.

Board — Ac 7d 3c 4s 8d

PF – utg opens 2bb, you 3bet to 6bb, heads-up (6 + 6 + 1 + 2 = 15 bb)

F – utg donks 7bb, you call, (15 + 7 +7 = 29 bb)

T – utg bets 29bb, you call, (29 + 29 + 29 = 87bb)

R – utg all in for 59bb, you call, (87 + 59 + 59 = 205 bb)

Combinations

– sets (AA, 77, 33) — 3 combos each — 9 total

– two pairs (A7, A3, 73) — 9 combos each — 27 total however I would ignore (73)

– bigger pairs (KK, QQ, JJ) — 6 combos each — 18 total

– flush draws (KQcc, KJcc, KTcc, QJcc) — 1 combo each

Ranges

– With it being so early in the tournament, I assume that you aren’t 3-betting light in this spot so maybe your range is something like 77+, AK, AQ, AJs, and KQs. I don’t see you 3-betting wider on the 6th hand of the tournament against an utg opener. With this range, 77 – KK and KQ are afraid of the ace on the flop. This means that 42 combos of pocket pair and 16 combos of KQ will likely pump the brakes. The other part of your range (AK, AQ, AJs) likes the ace on the flop. Their are 12 combos of AK and AQ. With the Ac on the flop, the only suited AJ combos are AJhh, AJss, AJdd for 3 total combos. This means that 27 combos / (27 + 58) = 27 / 85 = 32% of your range likes the ace. This means that 68% of your range doesn’t like the ace on the flop. YES, I totally agree that you have the “better aces” in your range. I would argue that the villain has more combos of Ax than you do though. At the early stages of the tournament with 130 bb, a lot of players will stick with these hands pre-flop…especially when getting heads-up.

What does the donk-bet on the flop mean?

– Let’s assume that either donk-bets for value or is semibluffing.

– The value hands are (33, 77, AA, A7, A3, KK, QQ, JJ,) where there are 45 value hand combos (3 + 3 + 3 + 9 + 9 + 6 + 6 + 6).

– The most likely semi-bluffing hands are (KQcc, KJcc, QJcc) which is a total of 3 combos. These hands have 15 outs and can hit any club or any over card on the turn or river to suck-out.

Overall,

– With a hand like TT, you have very little hope to improve on the Turn or River.

– If the villain is semi-bluffing, you’re likely dodging 15 outs on Turn and River.

– With this flop texture, the villain can’t have both a flush draw and an Ace.

– Without the Tc in your hand, you’re not blocking these hands (KTcc, QTcc, JTcc).

– After donk-betting 50% of the pot, you need to break-even win 33% of the time.

– About 1/3 or 33% of your 3-betting range actually prefers an ace on the flop.

– Your range has stronger Ax than the villains.

– The villain has more Ax combos than you do.

– Folding on the flop is only a loss of 6 bb.

– Folding on the turn is only a loss of 13 bb (6 bb preflop + 7 bb on flop).

I understand the chase. I’ve had the opposite occur where the guy donk-bets an ace high flop and I fold TT and they show a weaker hand. That sucks too.

But losing 6 bb is far better than losing 100 bb.