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Crazy Bubble Hand
Running Aces $90 Splash Pot Tournament. 12k starting, 15 min blinds. 40 entries.
6 left, 4 paid
I have 81k on the button
2k/4k/4k SB/BB/BB ante
ave stack around 100k
1st to act makes it 9k out of a stack close to mine.
next to act shoves for about 45kish
Big stack next folds to me.
I have AQo (sb, bb, 1st to act, left behind me)
Do I shove and try to iso ( I put the all in on something like middling pair)?
sb has about 30k, bb is a big stack
with the bubble considerations, I thought a shove here would get a lot of folds.
I shove and things get crazy. SB snap calls, before I get my chips in. BB folds (thankfully) and the original raiser calls all in.
Original shover had 88 like I thought, SB had A10o, 1st to act had KK.
no one improves, 2 KOs, I have KK covered and left with 6k, go out in 4th for a $200 profit
Trying to figure out if I am overvaluing AQ here, I have done this before in this spot and it keeps not going well.
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2 Replies
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Another really good one for our multiway theme this month. This would be completely standard all-in if it was just the 10bb HJ shove, BUT we have the UTG player to worry about. I’ve run this in HRC. Everything at GTO, we’re not overshoving with AQo. Rather AK, AQs, JJ+.
That said, I don’t think this is going to be GTO ranges. If we can assume that everyone is playing tighter than GTO in this spot, we get some interesting results. I’m shaving off some bottom Axs opens and a few other bottom hands for UTG, so they’re opening 77+ A9s+ ATo+ KJs+ KQo QJs. I have HJ overshoving with 55+ ATs+ AQo+ KQs. Against these ranges, even AK is a fold. We can only overshove with QQ+.
This is part of the multiway thing. It changes a lot of the dynamic and we have to account for that original raiser in this high leverage ICM spots. When we can take a marginal holding and get out of the way in these spots, we can make a lot of money just by doing nothing except folding a good, but not great starting hand. This would be entirely different if UTG wasn’t in the pot.
Don’t feel too bad though, at least this spot was close. The SB overcall w/ ATo is the poker equivalent in that batman scene where the joker is lighting a billion dollars on fire.
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