[taylormaas]

The thing that I don’t like about the shove is that we never took an aggressive action before this point. That coupled with the fact that the river card doesn’t really help the story that we are trying to tell — what hand has called this long and then when it sees the river Jack decides it wants to jam. Plus, another thing is that we block a lot of their bluffs here. I’d just give up in this spot almost every time.

I’m actually REALLY surprised that solvers would have this as a river jam. I would have expected it was a mix strategy on the flop between call/raise, then if we take the passive action there I’m surprised it then wants to get aggressive on the river.

EDIT: Sorry — just saw the river was a third spade. I guess this changes my mind on a few of those comments above. I also ran it through RangeTrainer and it has this as a pure check unless we have the combo of 8d7s

[tvstensby]

I also ran this hand in a solver and in my simulation 8c7d is also used as an all-in bluff on the river. Along with a few other missed straight draws with a club blocker. Personally I rarely find these spots and would probably have check folded here. Nice that you found it and also went with it (even if the result was not what you hoped).

A few things I noticed in my solve was:

• On the river after a taking a check-call line BB checks the river 89.2% of the time. Including checking with 48.2% of all made flushes (in order to have nutted hands in the checking range?). This reduces the number of bluffs required on the river, so care should be taken in order to avoid over-bluffing.
• The EV of a check vs an all-in bet for the BB’s made flushes if very small. So it is a viable option for the BB to check the entire range here. The BB still makes money with these strong hands due to the CO betting the river often. In my simulation the CO bets all-in 56.8% of the time when checked to, compared to calling 55.2% when the BB goes all-in.
• The solver only gets to the river using a check-call line with 0.212 combinations of 8c7d. The most frequent line for 8c7d is to lead on the flop (0.499 combos using a small bet and 0.21 combos using a large bet). The remaining 0.079 combos are folded on the turn.

  If we deviate from what the solver does and arrive on the river with more combinations of missed straight draws with a blocker then we can not bet with all of these, but need to check-fold an appropriate portion (the majority?).

It would be interesting to know what game tree setup you use. It is a topic that I find both interesting and difficult. How the game tree is set up seems to a significant on what solvers choose to do and am often uncertain if I get that right.

The game tree I use:

• Two sizes used for the initial bet (approx. 1/3 and 3/4 pot). Either player can make this bet (i.e. donking is allowed).
• After the initial bet each player can either go directly all-in or use two equal bets to get all-in (geometric sizing).

A final thought on flush completing rivers. Personally I find it difficult to call down big-bets with enough hands on these boards. In my simulation both the BB and CO should call down with hands as weak as middle pair when the other player goes all-in on the river. If you suspect that your opponent is not able to call down correctly then over-bluffing with missed draws should be very profitable. So from an exploitative view check-calling with these draws with the intention of over-bluffing suitable rivers might be a good strategy.

[eanderson85]

The solver only gets to the river using a check-call line with 0.212 combinations of 8c7d. The most frequent line for 8c7d is to lead on the flop (0.499 combos using a small bet and 0.21 combos using a large bet). The remaining 0.079 combos are folded on the turn.

Are these percentages? i.e. 0.212 is 21.2%. If so, what is a fifth of 8c7d? Or is it 87o is 21% of the calling range? Or is it something else? I’m confused. I want to understand. Please help me. 😕😕😕

[tvstensby]

These are the ratios on how the solver splits playing 8c7d when using a mixed strategy. So when holding 8c7d the solver takes the check-call line 21.2% of the time.

GTO+ displays these in a table when selecting a node in the game tree. So it is easy to see how often a specific hand is played so that it is part of the players range at that spot.

[eanderson85]

Okay. Thanks for the explanation. So, on the turn-
We lead half the time 1/3rd pot to give us a good BE% against opponents who will always call, and to sweeten the pot when we hit,
We lead 1/5th of the time 3/4 pot for fold equity when we miss 65% of the time, and to set up the river shove.
We check-call 1/5th to balance the big bet planning to lead shove the river,
and fold when we get a read.