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Deep Run in the Bounty Builder $22 on PokerStars
Its been awhile since I posted a hand so I figured I would leave a real brain bender. This hand also fits in nicely with the ICM conversations that have been going on lately especially in the book study.
We are deep in the $22 Bounty Builder on Stars. Just under 1800 player field and we are down to the last 25 players. Pay jumps have increased but they are still small in comparison to the final 2 tables. Bounties are big now compared to the buyin but I know from studying Daras book on PKOs that at this point in the tournament, staying alive and making the pay jumps are starting to outweigh the value of the bounties.
We are at a shorthanded table with only 3 players, myself and 2 others. We are on the button with 60.88BB, our opponent in the small blind has 52.3BB and our main opponent in the hand started with 35.9BB on the big blind. We have 161 hands on our pokertracker on our friend in the big blind. 30 VPIP/20 RFI/7 3-bet & c-bets 67%.
We open the button with As8c for 2.1BB. Small blind folds and the big blind calls. Pot=5.15BB So far so good.
Flop: 3c5h8h Our stack: 58.8BB Our opponent: 33.76BB
Our opponent checks and we bet 1.7bb and they call. What does everyone think of the bet on the flop? Standard? Maybe we should size up because this flop connects with the big blind range and we have an above average hand? Or should we check and try and control the size of the pot considering that we have position in the hand and don’t want to get blown off it? In game we bet and get called but I am curious to see what people think about this spot.
Turn: 7s Board: 3c5h8h7s Pot=8.55BB Out stack: 57.08BB Our opponent: 32.06BB
This is where the rails come off the tracks. Our opponent checks, we bet 6BB and our opponent JAMS! Fairly fast they do take a couple of seconds before moving their stack in. Oh boy. Just to make things even more interesting this player has a fairly large bounty of around $165…. Should we call or fold? Now looking back on the hand I’m not even sure about my bet on the turn. Maybe this is the better spot to try and control the size of the pot? Let’s get the thinking caps on folks!!!
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1 Reply
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As8c is firmly in your opening range and is even a call against a 3bet if needed, so good start. Preflop must be right.
An 8h,5h,3c flop is considered “small unconnected two tone”.
We check nearly half of the time in position on this board, looking for a free card.
With our value hands and draws, I would use a 3e sizing. With an SPR of 6.6 that means a bet size between 68% and 73%.
I would pick a size that looks bluffy to a 30/20/7 (?) between 2/3 and 3/4 pot, whatever you feel that is. I would probably just hit the 3/4 pot button and click down 1 click. But a manual bet like 3.5 or 4 might do better on some villains.
This gives us value from worse pairs, and gives their draws 30% pot odds (call 3/4 to win 10/4).The 7s helps some of our range but turns a lot of it into junk. The 3/4 pot bet is consistent with the 3e sizing, and we would want to bet this with an equal amount of premium hands and draws.
When opponent shoves what does he have for bluffs? He may think that this board smashes his range and is therefore betting everything.
A 7% preflop 3bet usually doesn’t equate to a very bluffy turn 2bet, though. But we are 3-handed.
We don’t block their flush draws which is good. Will they only bluff combo draws? Or do they know that their flush draws only hit 19.57% of the time and they can’t profit with 30% pot odds by calling? Therefore, they either fold or add fold equity to their hand by betting. Playing 3 handed in an ICM situation, people tend to overfold.
They DID call the flop bet, which whispers implied odds or a planned float.And then there are bounties and ICM.
The payouts are relatively flat, so risk premium should be higher. I don’t know your chance of cashing so all I can do is guess. Let’s say your risk premium is 10% to make it easy.
How much will winning this hand help you win the tournament? Will you be top 9 or top 3 in chips? Future game matters along with the bounty.
Since you cover him, does your bounty affect his decision? Probably not. But if HE wins, will he be a big stack?
I need to study bounties more. I don’t know how much his bounty will reduce your risk premium. Let’s say 10%😜You need to call 17.51 to win 64.12 giving you 27% pot odds, meaning you need to win about 1/3 of the time.
Is top pair, top kicker winning an all-in with 3 tables left after playing what? 6 hours?
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