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Doug Polks fold on Hight Stakes Poker **SPOILER ALERT**
Hey RecPoker!
I have been watching the new season of High Stakes Poker as it was one of the shows that led me into this great game.
So far I have been somewhat unimpressed with it compared to the older seasons. Obviously poker has changed a lot since 2006 so I wasn’t expecting the same old wild pots we seen back during the poker boom.
However with that being said I think that they have done a ok job telling the story of HSP and have managed to bring back at least a some of the nostalgia of the old days. And the latest episode certainly was a doozy. One hand in particular caught my eye and I have seen it in a lot posted on social media since the episode has been released. Keep in mind I’m an MTT player now so I’m curious to see what some of the more experinced cash game player think about this spot.
The hand start with one of my fav players of all time Phil Hellmuth raising UTG with QsTh with blinds at $200/$400 with a $100 ante. Phil started the hand with about 98k and raises to $1100. James Bord calls on the button with 2h2s (125k stack) and Doug Polk (200k stack) makes the call in the BB with Td7c.
Pot: $3900
Flop: As crazy as it gets: Js9s8h
As far as pre flop I think it is total standard and I even like Bord’s call with 22 in position. Post flop is when things get crazy.
Flop: Doug checks, Hellmuth checks, Bord bets 2000, Doug raises to 7000 and Hellmuth shoves the full 97200 in the middle with Bord quickly getting out of the way leaving Doug in a tough spot with the second nuts facing a MASSIVE 90000 bet.
The table talk during the hand has to be my fav part of this hand. I wont go into all the details (if you want PokerGo has a video of the hand on the FaceBook page) but Doug goes into the tank. He says to Phil “what do you have here Phil?” and Phil responds with “Well I can easily have…..” and trails off leaving Doug saying “What? What do you easily have here??” Phil says “I could have a set, or AT of spades” and Doug shuts him down by saying “Do you really have a set here Phil? Your so much better than that”
In the end Doug shows his cards, mucks and Phil doesn’t show.
The last few weeks I have been taking some time to read Modern Poker Theory and looking at this play from Hellmuth it seems really bad. From what I have been reading certain actions that put more money in the pot can actually be lower EV than others. For instance if Hellmuth just calls here his EV would be higher than shoving because he keeps Doug in the pot even if Doug can draw out on him on the turn or river. Additionally a smaller raise would be the best option because it not only charges all the draws but will keep Doug in the hand with all the hands that Hellmuth wants calls from including the exact hand that Doug has.
Curious to see what everyone else thinks!
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1 Reply
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My initial thought when reading the hand history was that this was a “defensive”, slightly unambitious, move by Hellmuth. Rather than trying to get Polk involved with a wider range Hellmuth makes a polarizing jam.
Hellmuth should expect that Polk is able to assess his jamming range fairly accurately. The value from Hellmuth’s perspective is then capturing what is in the pot already rather than hoping that Polk makes a calling error.
When facing a better opponent focusing on realizing the equity you already have can make sense. It is (probably) not GTO to do so and I am also unsure if Hellmuth sees Polk as a better post flop player. However I think it could be wise from Hellmuth to play parts of his range this way.
The nut flush draws are one category of hands that could play this way and during the table talk Hellmuth uses that as an example of what he could have. If Hellmuth wants to be balanced doing the same with his nut straights makes sense.
I played around with an equity calculator to understand Polk’s fold. He needs 45% equity to call the jam.
- Versus top straights and nut flush draws Polk has only 32% equity and the fold is clear.
- Versus top straights, sets and nut flush draws Polk has 41.4% equity (getting closer).
- Versus top straights, nut flush draws and 13 combos of weaker draws (KsTs, Qs8s, 8s7s, 7s6s, AsQx, 77) Polk has 45.4% equity (break even)
- Versus top straights, sets, nut flush draws and 13 combos of weaker draws Polk has 49.6% equity (a reasonable call).
Given that Polk folds he must have put Hellmuth on a range without enough bluffs/semi-bluffs. If Hellmuth actually makes this move with a wider range, then it was a good play. If not then it might be better to play his nut hands differently.
At the end of the day I think that capturing the money already in the pot is a reasonable play. Even for high stakes players that one might expect to be more tricky and ambitious.
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