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Early Tournament Mistake
This hand is in my opening range. When I get 3! I am supposed to fold this, but then I looked at the situation. This is a perfect squeeze spot. The stats on the player indicated that they are loose and aggressive. I only had 93 hands on him, but at 43/25/12 I thought he was more than capable of squeezing light here. So I called. With a monotone club flop and holding the Ac I couldn’t get away. Mistake or just bad luck to run up against one of the top hands in their range?
Yatahay Network – 250/500 NL (8 max) – Holdem – 8 players
http://www.pokertracker.com]Hand converted by PokerTracker 4BTN: 54.89 BB
SB: 68.29 BB
BB: 88.34 BB
UTG: 68.27 BB
Hero (UTG+1): 103.64 BB
MP: 79.2 BB
MP+1: 104.41 BB
CO: 73.59 BB
8 players post ante of 0.05 BB, SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB
Pre Flop: (pot: 1.9 BB) Hero has Ts Ac
fold, Hero raises to 2.5 BB, MP calls 2.5 BB, fold, fold, fold, SB raises to 7 BB, fold, Hero calls 4.5 BB, MP calls 4.5 BB
Flop: (22.4 BB, 3 players) 4c 7c 3c
SB bets 22.4 BB, Hero calls 22.4 BB, fold
Turn: (67.2 BB, 2 players) Td
SB bets 38.84 BB and is all-in, Hero calls 38.84 BB
River: (144.87 BB, 2 players) Js
SB shows Q:c Qd (One Pair, Queens)
(Pre 71%, Flop 56%, Turn 73%)
Hero shows Ts Ac (One Pair, Tens)
(Pre 29%, Flop 44%, Turn 27%)
SB wins 144.87 BB
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5 Replies
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Top Top wins a lot.
You’re getting 27% pot odds. (Call 1/2 pot to win 4/2).
Poker tracker says you have 27% equity.
There are 24 combos of over pairs (AA-JJ), AK, and AQs that more than likely 3bet, and the charts have ATs+, KTs+, T9s+, A5s, and 76s, ballparking about 40 combos you beat if they are playing GTO.
This is where I get lost.
Do we divide 24/40 to get a 60% loss rate? If so, then we have a 40% win rate, which is higher than our 27% pot odds.
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Top Top wins a lot.
You’re getting 27% pot odds. (Call 1/2 pot to win 4/2).
Poker tracker says you have 27% equity. So, it comes down to reads.There are 24 combos of over pairs (AA-JJ), AK, and AQs that more than likely 3bet, and the charts have ATs+, KTs+, T9s+, A5s, and 76s, ballparking about 40 combos you beat if they are playing GTO. With a 12% general 3bet, I dunno.
This is where I get lost.
Do we divide 24/40 to get a 60% loss rate? If so, then we have a 40% win rate, which is higher than our 27% pot odds.
To find the break even number of combos they need to 3bet to break even =
24(win)/X(lose)= 73%
73x=24
X= 24/73 = 32.9. So they could tighten up 7 combos and we will break even and we should still call. Less with the ICM of a tournament.
This is all dependent on if dividing winning combos by losing combos is the correct method in this situation.
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I don’t have a problem with the postflop play, although you might just want to jam flop if you are pretty sure that he is going to bet turn (only a half-pot behind) and you are not going to get away from the hand. If you hit you win, so you might as well pick up some fold equity.
I am curious, though, if this is a common squeeze size that you see. I play more cash and a 6.5BB squeeze from the small blind when there is already 6.5bb in the pot (minus SB ante) seems fairly small. Further, he has the BB to act yet, which should concern him. If I was playing, I would want to size up and give my opponents a harder decision. As played, not surprisingly, both you and the MP call. I think that the sizing screams that he wants action/strength and you might have wanted to keep to your original plan.
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I did notice the smaller sizing but took it as someone who knew they should squeeze and just put out a bet. This is a nuance that I don’t consider often enough. Thanks for the input.
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At the micros I have been playing I get really suspicious if someone throws out a min 3-bet these days and I am rooting really hard for their hand to be tabled after I fold to see with what they are doing this. I have seen a lot of players do this with AA or KK lately. Obviously it is #villaindependent but I have avoided some sticky situations by folding to these small raises. Of course, there are many times I see it, ignore it, barrel into it and then cry… 😕
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