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Easy fold or call to keep building my stack?
7 handed early in a 14 person tournament from my pokerbros monthly tournaments
50 ante, blinds 150-300, I’m chip leader at 18,486, other players have 6,000-8,000
UTG folds, I raise to 750 w AsKd, HJ calls (6K behind), folds to BB who calls (7.8K behind)
[2750] Flop: 10d 3d 2d BB bets 600, I raise to 1.8K, HJ all in for 6K, BB folds, Hero?
I know BB well, plays a wide range pre-flop, loves to chase draws, loves to lead with any piece of the board and likes to min raise with nuts, likes to take stabs, but will fold when raised if he doesn’t have it. I think my raise gets him to release 90% of time and I have plenty of equity when called with overcards and flush draw.
HJ is unknown, first time I play with him and hasn’t shown down any hands.
Is a fold too nitty? Do we need to call and take a shot for a commanding lead in chips?
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3 Replies
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Preflop: Effective stack is HJ with ~6k (20bbs). Hero AsKd raises to 750 (2.5bbs).
This a good raise size.
Flop: [Pot 2750] 10d 3d 2d
BB leads 600 (~22% pot), Hero raises to 1800, HJ all-in for 6K. BB fold
Hero has reads on BB but not HJ. BB is known to lead often and chase draws. Holding two overs and a big diamond, I prefer a call. If BB has a made hand, we are getting the correct odds to improve to a better hand. We also keep BB in with all his bluffs. Additionally an unknown opponent is yet to act.
HJ jam makes the pot 11,150. It’s 4200 to Hero for a call. Equity needed for a break-even call is 4200/(4200+11150) = 27.4%
Against exactly a set (TT, 33, 22 [9 combos]), equity is 29%.
Against a made non-nut flush (Qd9d, 8d7d [say 17 combos]), equity is 29%
Against a made nut flush (Ad8d [7 combos]), equity is 0%
Against a nut flush draw and wheel draw (Ad5c [8 combos]), equity is 48%.
Against a pair and a nut flush draw (AdTc [9 combos]), equity is 11%.
Assume that HJ will jam with all of the above hands.
Total combos = 9+17+7+8+9 = 50
Equity = 9/50*29+17/50*29+8/50*48+11/50*11 = 26%
This looks to be a slightly losing call. One important factor is that we are not drawing to the nuts. Holding the Ad would make this a profitable.
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I think the like the flop raise more if we are heads up. Playing multiway we have to worry about what two opponents might have in this spot, so I’d much prefer to see a call here.
When raised all-in, we got caught. The odds though are just so good that we probably have to call. Our opponent should know that he has very little fold equity so when they jam, its almost 100% value jams.
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No exciting results on this one, I folded and the unknown HJ took it down uncontested….I didn’t have reads and seemed like it was a value play from a player that wasn’t super active so far…
Thanks for all the comments!
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