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Effects of Blockers on the Turn Seem Opposite of Expected?
What do I make of this solver output in Range Trainer Pro?
We are 20bb effective in the BB facing an EP open raise and no callers. We have AA. Range Trainer Pro says to call 100%. We call.
Range Trainer Pro gives the following strategies for the BB when holding AA:
20bb effective.
EP raise 2bb, folds to BB.
BB AA call.
Flop 55 (5.5bb) Ks8h4d
BB check
EP bet 14 (25% pot)
BB raise 43 (35% pot)
EP call
Turn (112 – 11.2bb) Ks8h4dKd
BB’s actions depend on which aces he holds. Here are the mixed strategies for each AA combo:
AhAc – 97% check, 3% jam
AhAs – 100% check
AcAs – 90% check, 10%: bet 35 (25% pot)
AhAd – 7% check, 93%: bet 35 (25% pot)
AcAd – 45% check, 55%: bet 35 (25% pot)
AdAs – 29% check, 71%: bet 35 25%pot
Reviewing the strategies, villain on the flop came along with almost all of his backdoor diamond draws after our check-raise. This includes 100% of his AdXd.
Why are we usually betting this turn when we block the diamond draw, but usually checking when we unblock it? Shouldn’t it be the opposite? When we block the diamond draw it makes villain more likely to have us beat with any king or with 88. When we unblock the diamond draw it makes villain more likely to be on that draw, so shouldn’t we charge him to miss that draw?
All of BB’s AA combos have very favorable and nearly identical equities. However it appears his EV is nothing to write home about. He has slightly better equity realization with his blocker combos than with his unblockers. Why would this be?
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