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Effects of Blockers on the Turn Seem Opposite of Expected?
What do I make of this solver output in Range Trainer Pro?
We are 20bb effective in the BB facing an EP open raise and no callers. We have AA. Range Trainer Pro says to call 100%. We call.
Range Trainer Pro gives the following strategies for the BB when holding AA:
20bb effective.
EP raise 2bb, folds to BB.
BB AA call.
Flop 55 (5.5bb) Ks8h4d
BB check
EP bet 14 (25% pot)
BB raise 43 (35% pot)
EP call
Turn (112 – 11.2bb) Ks8h4dKd
BB’s actions depend on which aces he holds. Here are the mixed strategies for each AA combo:
AhAc – 97% check, 3% jam
AhAs – 100% check
AcAs – 90% check, 10%: bet 35 (25% pot)
AhAd – 7% check, 93%: bet 35 (25% pot)
AcAd – 45% check, 55%: bet 35 (25% pot)
AdAs – 29% check, 71%: bet 35 25%pot
Reviewing the strategies, villain on the flop came along with almost all of his backdoor diamond draws after our check-raise. This includes 100% of his AdXd.
Why are we usually betting this turn when we block the diamond draw, but usually checking when we unblock it? Shouldn’t it be the opposite? When we block the diamond draw it makes villain more likely to have us beat with any king or with 88. When we unblock the diamond draw it makes villain more likely to be on that draw, so shouldn’t we charge him to miss that draw?
All of BB’s AA combos have very favorable and nearly identical equities. However it appears his EV is nothing to write home about. He has slightly better equity realization with his blocker combos than with his unblockers. Why would this be?
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3 Replies
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Could it be due to the fact that he is more likely to bet his nut FD as a semi-bluff? So a check may induce him to bet and a bet may induce him to fold.
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I think you need to go one more street.
If we don’t hold the Ad, he has 9 outs for 18.5% chance to flush the river. If HE holds the AdXd and we check to him, he is likely to semi-bluff and miss 4/5 of the time.
If he has a flush draw and WE have the Ad, he only hits it on the river 17.4% of the time (8 outs turn to river now).
BUT, when he does hit his flush with one of his 8 combos of diamonds (If we have the Ad, 100% of his AdXd and KdXd are blocked, which is a lot of his range that we are beating), it is never the nuts because the top 2 are already removed. This allows us to shove and put him to a tournament life decision with what could be a worse hand.
Since the SPR is < 2, we can bet 60% pot twice to get it in evenly, 1/4 of the effective stack (~33%) to leave a pot sized bet on the rivered diamond, or anywhere in between according to our opponent’s tendencies and still get max value on the river.
The solver’s only choices are pot or 25%, so there ya go, 25% it is, leaving an overbet shove on the river or lesser value if you get cold feet.Of course, there is that ~4.5% chance that he has a king or pocket 8s and already has us beat. A smaller bet or a check might be better in that situation if your opponent is straightforward and won’t bluff raise the turn. If they raise, maybe we can find a fold.
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