[arw]

Questions:

• Would this player make this river bet with a worse two pair?
• Would this player make this river bet with only a flush or straight?

<u style=””>Combinatorics

On the board (As 8d 4c Jc 6c)

• Sets:

• AA — 1 combo
• 88 — 3 combos
• 44 — 3 combos
• JJ — 1 combo
• 66 — 3 combos

[binkley]

ARW – another impressive combinatorial breakdown.

Set combos – I think both AA and 66 are unlikely. AA would 3bet and 66 would likely fold facing flop and turn bets. Assume 1 out of 4 AA/66 combo reaches the river.

Total set combos: 8

Flush: I had the Ac. That leaves sb with 35 flush combos

Straight combos: 15

Total combos that beat me: 58

Two pairs: Removing more of sb combos decreases the chances that a call is good.

Remove the most unconnected hands, 84,J6, and J4: 49 two pair combos

But as played, assume that A8 and A4 would raise either on the flop or turn.

Now we are down to 37 combos I beat.

So 37 / (37+58) = 39%

Equity needed to make the call break even is 330/(330+660) = 33%

Would this player bet with a worse 2 pair or only a flush or straight?

I really didn’t know in the moment….

[arw]

Note:

With this range, AJ is only beating 53 combos of two-pair, chopping in the rare case they have one of the other 4 combos of AJ, and losing to the rest of the range of 70 combos.

[taylormaas]

Yeah, the tough part about this is that the SB lead is rarely as a bluff. There’s really only a few missed straight draws so then it comes down to can we beat enough of his value range.

It being 3 handed, you may see enough two pair hands to make this a profitable call. Plus, I think there is too many flush combos in the ranges you provided as most players shouldn’t be calling any two suited cards. So we can discount that, but we likely also have to discount some of the two pair hands, like 84/64/J6/J4 for the same reasoning.

[binkley]

To clarify, hand started with 9 players. It went heads-up to the flop. Thanks for the response. Agree that even with loose players, the preflop calling range fro sb should be than a BB caller. So 84/J6/J4 combos are less likley.

[binkley]

Results:

*** RIVER *** [8d 4c As Jc] [6c]

Small Blind : Bets 330

UTG+1 [ME] : Call 330

Small Blind : Showdown [As Ah 6h 6c Jc] (Two pair)

UTG+1 [ME] : Showdown [As Ac Jh Jc 8d] (Two pair)

UTG+1 [ME] : Hand Result 1320

I called with my top two pair. Straight seemed unlikely as it was a gutshot draw. Although the backdoor flush came in, I couldn’t see folding.

SB showed Ah 6h for a rivered worse two pair. After the initial relief of not losing to a flush, I realized that a raise would have been called. In the moment, I thought it was a mistake to miss out on value. But after time to think about it, I see that only holding his exact hand do I get called by worse. By betting I would just lose more against the flushes.

Thanks for the comments.

[jim]

love your hidden results feature here @Binkley I’ll see if we can add a cloaking layer to this forum in the future. It’s great seeing your thoughts on these hands, I’m really enjoying your posts.

[binkley]

Thank @Jim . I appreciate everybody’s comments. After hearing so many top players and coaches recommend sharing and discussing hands as a great to improve, I’m committed to doing it.

[jim]

I can see that! I can’t wait to check in with you in a month or two to see how each of our strategies and games have benefited from our experience in these new forums and discussions. There are so many factors to consider at every decision point in this great game we play – the more of these tricky spots we’ve already worked through here and at home in the lab, the easier it will be to know what to do in real time on the felt. Keep it up!