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Fold a Set?
We are in a live $175+20 MTT with 20 min. blinds and 15k starting stacks. Blinds are at 100/200, antes aren’t in play yet. Our stack is about 18,000. We have Two limpers from early and late position. We are in CO with black 88 and raise to 1,000. The BTN calls. Limpers call. Flop (4,300) 8h6h4c. Checks to us. We bet 1,500. BTN calls. Limpers fold. We only had a couple of orbits so far, so I didn’t have a solid read on BTN yet, but from what I could tell he could be a bit on the loose side. Turn (7,300) is Th. We bet 2,000. BTN calls. River (11,300) is 3s. We bet 2,000, BTN raise to 7,000. We need 5,000 to call.
Do we make this call?
I’m concerned that my sizings were too small on every street. Would you agree with my sizing concerns?
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4 Replies
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We’re really deep here. I think the conventional wisdom of “take your standard raise sizing and add a bb for each limper” is starting to be a little stale. We’re almost giving them what they want. I ran this in HRC. I gave our opponents about a 25% limping range (and took off the top hands that they would raise). I gave the second player an even wider overcalling range. I then gave us the option of raising to 5bb, 8bb, or 10bb. It mostly prefers the largest sizing option (10bb) at these depths. With a hand like 88, it is almost purely going big. This is because our limpers are so wide and capped. We’ll be talking about this more in the Deep Dive next month when we discuss playing against limpers, but it is part of the limping mindset too. This chart is at equilibrium, since limpers really want to see a flop cheaply, we’re playing right into their hands when we raise small pre. So I like a bigger bet pre.
Postflop, I also agree that our flop sizing should go bigger. This is a wet board that will smash a lot of limping ranges. It’s not like other situations where we need to check back or slow play our top sets, I think we want to build a pot right now and take advantage of the limping mindset which doesn’t like to fold once it connects in any way.
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I have to agree. 2k preflop would’ve been much better. To indulge in a bit of results-oriented thinking, V had Ah9h. He wasn’t going anywhere postflop. He probably would’ve called preflop. Still, I could’ve played the hand better.
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With the usual caveat: villain dependent.
A pot-sized bet (or more) pre gives them bad odds to call, a must with passive players. Using a set number of Big Blinds is a shortcut. The solvers are only concerned with the pot odds, which is a fraction.
Pot size equals 3 times the last bet plus the dead money.
(200 * 3) + 200 + 200 + 300(blinds) = 1300.
With 2 callers at 1300, pot is ~4200, giving us a flop SPR of 16850/4200 = 4.
A 3e bet sizing would be around 1/2 pot each street, getting it in by the river.
With one caller, our flop SPR would be around 5.8, making a 3e sizing about 2/3 pot.If we raise to 2000 (1.5X pot), with one caller our flop SPR is around 4 again, only in a heads-up pot instead of multiway, giving us more equity. 1/2 pot 3e bet.
If we bet 2X pot (2600), we only need our opponents to fold over 1/3 of the time to profit with any two cards (Bet 2 to win 3 = 66% Break Even), and our 3e is one click down from 1/2 pot.
These post-flop bet sizings are cool because your opponents try to match your bet size to your hand strength, when really it is totally reliant on effective stack size.
They have a hard time getting a bet-sizing tell, yet you seem to threaten their stack every. single. time. they play you.Now, let’s do the standard 2.7BB open plus 1BB for each limper = 542.
2 callers at 550 gives us a pot of 1950. SPR= 8.6. 3e = 80% pot.Now, all we have to do is determine:
1) What preflop raise size will get us heads up?
2) What will the SPR be when called?
3) Is this a 3 street, all-in hand?
4) What are they calling us with?
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With the usual caveat: villain dependent.
A pot-sized bet (or more) pre gives them bad odds to call, a must with passive players. Using a set number of Big Blinds is a shortcut. The solvers are only concerned with the pot odds, which is a fraction. See EV equation.
Pot size equals 3 times the last bet plus the dead money.
(200 * 3) + 200 + 200 + 300(blinds) = 1300.
With 2 callers at 1300, pot is ~4200, giving us a flop SPR of 16850/4200 = 4.
A 3e bet sizing would be around 1/2 pot each street, getting it in by the river.
With one caller, our flop SPR would be around 5.8, making a 3e sizing about 2/3 pot.If we raise to 2000 (1.5X pot), with one caller our flop SPR is around 4 again, only in a heads-up pot instead of multiway, giving us more equity. 1/2 pot 3e bet.
If we bet 2X pot (2600), we only need our opponents to fold over 1/3 of the time to profit with any two cards (Bet 2 to win 3 = 66% Break Even), and our 3e is one click down from 1/2 pot.
Notice that 3 out of these 4 preflop results have the same post-flop bet size.
These post-flop bet sizings are cool because your opponents try to match your bet size to your hand strength, when really it is totally reliant on effective stack size.
They have a hard time getting a bet-sizing tell, yet you seem to threaten their stack every. single. time. they play you, using very unassuming standard bet sizings.Now, let’s do the standard 2.7BB open plus 1BB for each limper = 940.
2 callers at 940 gives us a pot of 2180. SPR= 7.7. 3e = 3/4 pot.Which preflop raise size gets us the desired results? With a medium strength hand like pocket 8s, getting a fold preflop for 6 Big Blinds is pretty good, so 2X pot might be desirable. With a stronger holding, we might want to isolate one caller with a 1.5X bet, then milk them dry with boring 1/2 pot bets.
Now, all we have to do is determine:
1) What preflop raise size will get us heads up?
2) What will the SPR be when called?
3) Is this a 3 street, all-in hand/flop?
4) What are they calling us with?
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