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  • Folding AA to a small river bet?

    Posted by fivebyfive on February 4, 2021 at 10:48 am

    So I’m curious what others think of this spot (full hand history below). I’ll explain my postflop thinking and see if you agree.

    Flop: Ugh. This squares up with a decent amount of continuing range for V. Main V is likely to continue with pairs 88-JJ and connected broadway combos (AJ, KQ, KJs, AQ). Although my hand is still strong, I prefer a check call line multiway in this spot. Interestingly, it checks around.

    Turn: The 10d is also not a great card for my hand even though I add the gutshot. V gets there with 1010 and AJ. I still beat some of V’s value (AQ, QJ, Q10, JJ) that may decide to continue here, so I do take the check call line. I like the check call line because V will be incentivized to check back brick rivers. If this goes check check on the river, I likely win. I’m planning to fold to river bets on brick rivers.

    River: So the river is a brick, I’m planning to fold to a bet, but then V chooses a very small size. 25% pot. Now I’m tempted. I’d argue that V should never be betting here without Kx+, but is that true of population? Does AQ or JJ see my passive line and take a stab for value? I still end up folding, but I’m curious, would you call this small bet?

    Here’s the full hand history:

    Game Hand #690293474 – Tournament #23967775 – Holdem(No Limit) – Level 29 (1100.00/2200.00)
    Table ’73’ 9-max Seat #2 is the button
    Seat 1: Wavy Crockett (38456.00)
    Seat 2: honestbluff (52893.00)
    Seat 3: FiveByFive (106550.00)
    Seat 4: Around9Asians (92034.00)
    Seat 5: d0p3z (29950.00)
    Seat 6: MotorCityGrinder (23900.00)
    Seat 7: peteypickles (89538.00)
    Seat 8: AuntJamima (113955.00)
    Seat 9: Steeler 7 (34382.00)
    Wavy Crockett posts ante 275.00
    honestbluff posts ante 275.00
    FiveByFive posts ante 275.00
    Around9Asians posts ante 275.00
    d0p3z posts ante 275.00
    MotorCityGrinder posts ante 275.00
    peteypickles posts ante 275.00
    AuntJamima posts ante 275.00
    Steeler 7 posts ante 275.00
    *** HOLE CARDS ***
    Main pot 2475.00
    FiveByFive posts the small blind 1100.00
    Around9Asians posts the big blind 2200.00
    Dealt to FiveByFive [Ac Ah]
    d0p3z folds
    MotorCityGrinder folds
    peteypickles raises 4620.00 to 4620.00
    AuntJamima folds
    Steeler 7 folds
    Wavy Crockett calls 4620.00
    honestbluff folds
    FiveByFive raises 15455.00 to 16555.00
    Around9Asians folds
    peteypickles calls 11935.00
    Wavy Crockett calls 11935.00
    *** FLOP *** [Qc Kd Ks]
    Main pot 54340.00
    FiveByFive checks
    peteypickles checks
    Wavy Crockett checks
    *** TURN *** [Qc Kd Ks] [Td]
    Main pot 54340.00
    FiveByFive checks
    peteypickles bets 12498.00
    Wavy Crockett folds
    FiveByFive calls 12498.00
    *** RIVER *** [Qc Kd Ks Td] [4s]
    Main pot 79336.00
    FiveByFive checks
    peteypickles bets 24594.00
    FiveByFive folds
    Uncalled bet (24594.00) returned to peteypickles
    peteypickles does not show
    *** SUMMARY ***
    Total pot 79336.00
    Board [Qc Kd Ks Td 4s]
    Seat 1: Wavy Crockett folded on the Turn
    Seat 2: honestbluff (button) folded on the Pre-Flop
    Seat 3: FiveByFive (small blind) folded on the River
    Seat 4: Around9Asians (big blind) folded on the Pre-Flop
    Seat 5: d0p3z folded on the Pre-Flop and did not bet
    Seat 6: MotorCityGrinder folded on the Pre-Flop and did not bet
    Seat 7: peteypickles did not show and won 79336.00
    Seat 8: AuntJamima folded on the Pre-Flop and did not bet
    Seat 9: Steeler 7 folded on the Pre-Flop and did not bet

    arw replied 3 years, 3 months ago 2 Members · 1 Reply
  • 1 Reply
  • arw

    Member
    February 6, 2021 at 10:59 pm

    Recap

    1100/2200/275 – 9 handed

    Pickles has ~41 bb

    Wavy has ~18 bb

    5×5 has ~48 bb

    Pickles opens to 2.2 bb, Wavy calls, 5×5 raises to 7.5 bb. Both players call.

    Pot (24.5 bb)

    Flop — Qc Kd Ks

    Checks around

    Pot (24.5 bb)

    Turn — Qc Kd Ks Td 4s

    5×5 checks, Wavy checks, Pickles bets 5.7 bb, Wavy folds, 5×5 calls

    Pot (36 bb)

    River — Qc Kd Ks Td 4s

    5×5 checks, Pickles bets 11 bb and 5×5 folds.

    I don’t recall playing with Pickles so I’ll assume he/she is an ABC player who isn’t out of line.

    For me, I think your sizing was off pre-flop. With 2 potential callers, I would probably raise bigger than 7.5 bb. More like 9.0 bb. That being said, you are called by two players and the terrible flop of KKQ hits. You have AA out of position and the initiative. You check, Wavy checks, and I think it’s important to note that Pickles decided not to bet the flop. The turn Td was a bad card as it put a flush draw and straight draw on the board. You check and Pickles bets 1/4 of the pot. With AA, you still have outs to hit a big hand. I would think that the remaining 2 aces and 2 kings would be good cards for you to hit on the river. You need to win 20% of the time to be profitable so I don’t mind a break-even call. The river is a blank for any flushes and 4-card straights so it is likely a blank for Pickles. He continues betting 11 bb on the river. The hero 5×5 can only call if Pickles is betting hands like (AQ, QJ, JT, and JJ) on the river. The hero should fold if Pickles has hands like (AK, KQ, KJ, KT, QQ, TT, and J9) in their pre-flop calling range. Folding AA on this board is likely correct with this action.

    That being said, you checked the flop with a way ahead or way behind condition. In my opinion, I like to bet the flop instead of checking for a couple of reasons. Pickles voluntarily bet on 2 consecutive streets, invested over 1/3 of his/her stack on this hand, and gave you good odds to call those bets. If it walks like a duck and talks like a duck, I would say “duck”.

    Lastly, an alternative line for you on the flop is to c-bet. This should help define your opponents hand and give you a chance to win. C-betting should keep Pickles range more honest and deter him from floating with hands like QJ and JT, even though you want those hands calling the c-bet, it’s easier to justify folding when Pickles is more likely to be trapping by calling than to be chasing by calling. Sometimes, it’s easier to get rid of the rif raf early. Betting the flop also give the rif raf hands an opportunity to call when they are behind. If they end up turning the rif raf into a bluff, good for them. Most won’t. Steve might 🙂




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