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Good spot to turn flopped top pair into a bluff?
We are 3-ways at final table of rec.poker monthly game last night and lucky enough to have the chip lead (we barely cover V). V has been very aggressive playing close to 40% of hands and continuing with pot sized bets on flops and turns.
BTN: 65.63BB
SB: 33BB
Hero :68.42BB
BTN opens to 3BB, SB folds, we are in BB w TdJc and call 2 BB
Flop [6.87BB]: Js2c5d We check, BTN bets 3.44BB, we raise to 9.88BB, BTN calls
Turn [26.63BB]: Js2c5d 6s We check, BTN bets 13.31BB, we call
River [53.25BB]: Js2c5d 6s Ac Hero? (we have 42BB left, V has 39BB)
My thoughts:
Pre-flop felt like this connected hand could flop well against some broadways and make decent pairs 3 ways. PT4 ICM tool that I dunno how to use says this is a pre-flop fold…any thoughts?
Flop This is a small c-bet from V, we are ahead a lot with our top pair and can be vulnerable to overcards. Think my raise cleans up our equity and wins the pot right there a lot
Turn Once we are called there have to be some overpairs in V’s range but also some drawing hands (back door flushes, small straight draws), we check/call with our weak top pair to pot control targeting draws or weak middle pairs.
River Didn’t like this card at all, pretty sure I said a few things to my laptop. Seems like a lot of sticky overcard type hands just made 2 pair or better pair and card is great for a button open range. This V is definitely capable of firing a missed draw, so I debate internally to check/fold, check/call or open jam to turn my pair into a bluff and get QQ or KK to fold. What’s the best move and why?
If this tourney was for real money, do we avoid this altogether pre-flop and focus on IP hands until it is heads up? Seems like if there is a decent jump between 2nd and 3rd place money this is a check-fold on river, right?
Can’t wait to hear from all the ICM experts!
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5 Replies
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I generally like playing this more passively, going for a check/call line on both the flop and turn.
I would not like trying to turn our hand into bluff, especially when our opponent has given us so many signs of how much they like their hand. They called our check raise and then continued to bet on the turn. I’m check/folding here almost every time.
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I agree with Taylor that it is best to play this hand more passively postflop.
In a real money tournament I think you should still defend your BB with this hand. When you are down to playing 3-ways you can not focus on IP hands as you are in the blinds 2/3 of the time.
Stacks are too deep to use the PT4 ICM tool in this spot. That tool only calculates the icm adjusted value of going all-in as the first pre-flop action you do in a hand. It will therefore tell you to fold hands that can be played profitably in other ways.
Regarding PT4 it is worth be aware that it assumes that any action that has happened before the action gets to you has not narrowed the ranges of those players. I.e. it assumes that any raise/limp is done with a 100% range. As this rarely is the case the tool will over estimate your fold equity when pushing over another player.
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Preflop:
An aggressive opponent will be opening wide from the button. JTo is a standard call, even against a larger 3x raise size.
Flop: Js 2c 5d Pot 6.86bb
Hero now has top pair with a mediocre kicker. A check call line is reasonable and most common. There are not many draws on the board. Strong hands like 22 and 55 could easily take a check call line. Hero decides to go for the check raise.
Strong top pairs can be used in a check raising range. I prefer to use our stronger top pairs such as KJ and QJ (and AJ if we chose not to 3bet). Having a K and Q blockers reduces the number of overpairs (KK, QQ), and floats (KQ) that button will continue with. By including JT in that range, we risk check raising too frequently, especially on a board without many draws.
Turn: [Js 2c 5d] 6s Pot 26.63bb
This turn card is a great card to continue to barrel. If we check raised with 34 as a bluff, we just got there. We can continue our story.
As played, Hero checks and button bets 1/2 pot. Hero calls.
River: [Js 2c 5d 6s] A
This is a bad river card. Hero now has a very weak bluff catcher. I think is a check and evaluate spot. By taking the flop check raise spot, the pot has grown. Hero may be able to call a small bet but I think a big bet is a fold.
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RESULTS:
I jammed river, hoping to get a better pair to fold and v called with A3o. He c-bet with a gut shot and continued to bet that on the turn.
Thanks for all the feedback – definitely agree x/c passive line is standard to bluff catch some draws and broadways oop with a weak top pair….Also see that when we do XR, need to follow through on the turn and stick with the aggressive plan on a turn that could have helped our range. Everyone agrees river is bad and probably time to give up.
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If V is likely to check back unimproved OTT, I actually like a C/R here but would size up larger to a full pot raise. We are trying to charge all draws and over pairs the max while also leveraging max fold equity. That does not appear to be the case here.
Since hero states that V is routinely betting turns and using a large sizing, I would take a passive check/call line in the spot OTF & OTT.
Pre is a standard defend. I do not like C/R flop and then checking turn here. That is the biggest mistake in this hand.
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