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  • Hand Analysis Help – Overthinking

    Posted by ep1ct3tu5 on January 30, 2022 at 12:32 pm

    Good Evening All.

    First time post but a long time admirer. I don’t have any poker friends around me and therefore have nowhere to discuss or analyse hands or strategies than here.

    I play live tournaments at my local casino ranging from £50-£70 buy ins (UK) and I just wanted some feedback/analysis on a hand from Friday evening.

    £50 Deepstack tournament and we are into Level 9 with blinds at 800/1600. I’ve got myself a stack of approximately 131,000 through several all in spots with the hands identified below. I’m probably top 5 stacks with approximately 30 players remaining. My image at the table is fairly TAG but all in all I’ve only been involved in 5 legit hands for the table audience where they’ve seen my KK (2)/AK (2)/TT (1) so have a relatively tight image. I’ve been at this table since Level 2 (30 minute blinds until L4 then into 20 minutes).

    UTG (Nitty) open shoves 29k (18bbs) Folds to me in LoJack with AKo. I flat. Rationale being as I’m quite happy with flat/calling then calling off here but it also looks deceptively strong considering my image at the table and arguably I would do the same with the top of my range (AA/KK) to induce shoves behind. Gets round to BTN (Player joined table around Level 6 but hadn’t been overly active) who rips 101k (65bbs) all in. After a brief period of consideration, I called off.

    Rather than discuss results, what is everyone’s thoughts about my flat pre? Should this be an ISO shove or is it perfectly fine to flat/call off here (player dependent) as discussed above with aspect of deception. I have a niggling feeling that if I shove, this may pose a serious question for BTN who may take a different course of action. I’m trying not to be results oriented but I can’t seem to shake this niggling question.

    If any further information is required, please just ask and I will try to provide it.

    I would genuinely appreciate any feedback from my fellow Reccers accompanied by any acerbic sarcasm or wit.

    Thanks in advance.

    monkiesystem replied 2 years, 3 months ago 7 Members · 13 Replies
  • 13 Replies
  • rabman50

    Administrator
    January 30, 2022 at 5:16 pm

    Hey there fellow stoic. “It’s not what happens to you, but how you react to it that matters” – Epictetus.

    Now that we have that out of the way. In the past I never considered just a normal raise over a jam. I would either call or go all-in. I believe there is some merit to raising to isolate without committing your entire stack. From the LoJack you have five more players left to act. An isolation move looks much stronger than a call which may prevent one of the remaining players from getting frisky. Hope it worked out this time.

  • ep1ct3tu5

    Member
    January 31, 2022 at 2:56 am

    Hi Rabman. Thank you for the feedback on the aforementioned hand. If I were to nominally raise in this particular position, what amount would you recommend it be and would this mean we are locked in to call off? Say I raise to 60k total over the initial shover (pot would be 94k at this point with original shove blinds and big button ante), BTN shove for 101k, would I not be priced in to call? I definitely think the isolation re-raise is the optimal move here with my holding but as always, I’m open to feedback and analysis.

    Stay stoic!

  • misclickdonkey

    Member
    January 31, 2022 at 10:45 am

    Just a quick addition to What rob said . If you iso you look stronger. For me its either a re jam or a flat/fold the only upside to a flat here is if someone else in later postion wakes up you can still get away from it if they jam a massive stack like they did. I can say id never flip for 65bb with AJ but for 18 i would all day. just my 2 cents

    • ep1ct3tu5

      Member
      January 31, 2022 at 10:55 am

      Hi Misclickdonkey.

      Thanks for your feedback. I don’t know if you read it as my holding been (AJ) when in fact it was (AK). I can definitely fold out AJ there and wouldn’t even flat in that position. It’s interesting and I think I’m overanalyzing this particular spot retrospectively based on further informational outcome. For further context it transpired that the UTG also had (AK) and the BTN had (JJ). I think that the BTN may consider folding for his life with (JJ) in this spot. What are your thoughts on this?

      Thanks in advance.

      • jim

        Administrator
        February 2, 2022 at 8:53 am

        Wow, three stoics in one thread? There has to be a punchline here somewhere! Don’t laugh too hard though, just enjoy everything in moderation.

        Seriously though @Ep1ct3tu5 I think you are correct that the BTN player with JJ would have a tougher decision if you overshoved, so you have to consider the value of creating that tougher decision against the value of disguising the strength of your hand by a call – essentially under-repping it and increasing the likelihood of someone squeezing’s behind you with a weaker holding – which would make me more inclined to call off the reshove behind me if it was from an aggressive player.

        I often get tangled up in spots like this because on one hand, I am going to showdown anyway and it feels like both the call/call line or the reshove line both often involve me getting all my chips in – so do I want to play it in a way that gives me a chance to FOLD to a reshove, or do I want to play it in a way that gives me the chance to CALL a reshove? Depending on who the players are to my left, that might be the tie-breaker.

        • ep1ct3tu5

          Member
          February 3, 2022 at 8:49 am

          Hi Jim,

          Can I just say thanks for taking the time out to provide some feedback. I believe that both the flat and iso/reshove are viable options and the elements which will determine are player/table context dependent. I do agree, that we certainly ‘ask the question’ of (JJ) by re-shoving, but arguably we also provide some villains the opportunity to get funky with their 99-JJ/AQs type hands.

          Thanks.

          • jim

            Administrator
            February 3, 2022 at 1:52 pm

            Thanks for posting! It’s a good spot to think about. Obviously in tournaments we always like to win pots without having to actually put all our chips in the middle – but if we knew or had good assumptions about them squeezing with worse aces it doesn’t take that many offsuit combos before our AK starts doing better against that range, and there would be a considerable amount of chips in the sidepot that make how we are doing against their range only very relevant. Keep bringing spots like this!

  • fivebyfive

    Administrator
    February 2, 2022 at 2:10 pm

    My answer here would be very based on the stage of the tournament. If there are 30 left and we have a top 5 stack, how many get paid? Are we in the money? Approaching the money? Or far away from it?

    At most points of the tournament, I like an iso raise or shove here. I do agree that a raise here accomplishes almost the same thing as a shove, except it does give us some wiggle room to fold against certain types of opponents.

    We’re not going to get a lot of calls with even a min-click raise. We also need to take this same line with AA or KK too then though. Our lives do get really hard if we get shoved on after we do this. We then need to make a player read and decide. Against less capable/creative opponents we could find a fold. Against others, we likely still need to call.

    If we’re in a really big ICM leverage spot, this gets trickier (right before bubble or at FT). We can then consider the flat—or even fold. I’ve folded in spots like this on the direct bubble before. My giant stack is worth so much more on the bubble than risking it to sometimes win 18bb more.

    But in general, I like an iso raise.

    • ep1ct3tu5

      Member
      February 3, 2022 at 10:47 am

      Hi 5B5,

      Thank you for your feedback.

      The tournament is capped at 50 players due to dealer availability. Top 8 get paid. Upon reflection I’m happy with both options of flatting/shoving and I think the determinant factor should be solely based on table/player texture. I definitely believe we need to include KK/AA into this range for whichever line we elect to take.

      The stage of the tournament as you highlighted is also a factor to consider and under a bubble situation I think I can find a fold in this spot.

      I look forward to learning and developing and appreciate Reccing Crew feedback.

  • rabman50

    Administrator
    February 9, 2022 at 2:13 pm

    There is a great discussion on the topic during Session Ten of the Modern Poker Theory book study. It starts at 6:00. Several members of Rec Poker discuss the min-raise over an open shove. Check it out in the Content Archive section of the website.

  • combosupreme

    Member
    February 10, 2022 at 12:15 pm

    Fellow Lurker here, thought I would chime in with my 2 cents.

    I think you want to iso shove if you are going to play this, regardless of the hand.

    Given you have relatively bad position with a few players left to act, even AA and KK value the fold equity of the other players. If someone behind your re-shoves, they should have a pretty good hand, they do afterall have to get you to fold and beat an EP shove for nearly 20BB. If you are certain a re-shove is only AA or KK, then you can just call/fold in this spot, if you are ever planning to call, the money goes in better if you bet it yourself. They do not have a lot of incentive to re-shove marginal hands because they have to beat the original raiser as well, so anything they continue with will be strong.

    Additionally, with them having position on you post flop if they just call, if an A or K comes, they will not give you the action you want with TT, JJ, etc, the hands you hope they have here. If you miss you are playing a dangerous game both bluffing and bluff catching. If you are planning to check/fold every time you miss, and they are folding whenever you hit, you want to get their money now when they have a hand that will call, and want them to fold as often as possible.

  • ep1ct3tu5

    Member
    February 10, 2022 at 6:00 pm

    Hi Combosupreme

    I think there’s way more value than 2 cents worth in your analysis. I believe the ISO shove here is the most optimal play. I can see some value in trying to disguise the strength of my hand but believe this should only be done here with (AA/KK) especially with my equity decreasing against the more villains I invite into the hand by flatting.

    Thanks for the feedback. This aids my development and evolution as a player and it’s greatly appreciated.

    Rabman, I’ll have to grab a copy of MPT and get to studying.

  • monkiesystem

    Member
    February 12, 2022 at 11:14 am

    I’m in favor of the iso shove here. AKo does not like to go multiway. A shove likely isolates the initial shover. If we call and thus encourage action behind us, there is too much chance of getting it in there against a pair, which has us beat by a little bit already. And even if there are no pairs to contend with, we would be up against too many live cards.

    There is one caveat to that, though. As FiveByFive stated above, there could be ICM implications. We should carefully consider getting our stack in the middle in this spot when we are close to the money or the final table. In these ICM spots, not everyone tightens up; they don’t understand or care about ICM. So having a good read on your players is crucial.

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